tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post1379183894562951909..comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00Comments on The Power of Goals.: Shot Conversion Rates, Time Spent Leading and Red Cards. Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-2175360357361499212013-02-18T17:20:41.666+00:002013-02-18T17:20:41.666+00:00Hi Sander,
I definitely agree that the causation/c...Hi Sander,<br />I definitely agree that the causation/correlation arrow goes in both directions and the best way to separate the size of the two effects is to use the higher level of data. Collecting such data isn't really that difficult, but it is tedious and time consuming. One season for one team takes about 4 hours.<br /><br />I've been trying to come up with a use for the time spent leading/drawing stat for ages. It is strongly related to the pregame strengths of each side, so you can work out fairly easily how long a team *should* lead/draw for and compare it to how long they did lead/draw for. You still don't know for sure when their shooting inefficiencies started. But you can use it to build up evidence to support the conclusions from higher level data such as the Arsenal study.<br /><br />Match state is largely neglected at the moment, but it is a significant, minor contributor. When I started building "in running" models for football, they always improved if you told them what the current score was.<br /><br />Mark Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-58547943414520415182013-02-18T13:28:03.660+00:002013-02-18T13:28:03.660+00:00Mark,
Thank you for this fantastic post.
I really...Mark,<br /><br />Thank you for this fantastic post.<br />I really support the idea that context specific analysis is needed to take football analysis to a higher level.<br /><br />My question here regards the direction of the relation between conversion and game state.<br />While I personally think that there is more and more evidence that game state influences conversion more than most people think ('leading teams convert better'), how would you counter the argument that teams would lead because they convert better?<br /><br />Wouldn't that still require a higher level of data, such as you used in this (http://www.optasportspro.com/en/about/optapro-blog/posts/2012/guest-blog-scoring-efficiency-and-current-score-by-mark-taylor.aspx) excellent post elsewhere?<br /><br />Sander11tegen11http://11tegen11.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-8362147505058909572013-02-17T20:16:45.213+00:002013-02-17T20:16:45.213+00:00If you are interested in separating team skill fro...If you are interested in separating team skill from player skill, you may want to check out my blog goalimpact.com<br /><br />I rate players by comparing the teams performance with and without the player in a minute by minute approach. Until now I blog in German, but I could translate if the English speaking football analyst community is interested.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09004643652601937388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-24257075549007497382013-02-16T10:33:43.248+00:002013-02-16T10:33:43.248+00:00When players move teams it gives us a chance to tr...When players move teams it gives us a chance to try to see how much of the talent is with the player and how much with the team. I'm just starting a couple of posts relating to vP. they should be online later next week<br /><br />mark.Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-63741828577831878842013-02-16T00:58:46.540+00:002013-02-16T00:58:46.540+00:00Mark,
What are your thoughts on Arsenal 2011-2012...Mark,<br /><br />What are your thoughts on Arsenal 2011-2012 vs 2012-2013? I think their conversion rates are very similar to last season even without RVP.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com