tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post4524999189211120417..comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00Comments on The Power of Goals.: Twelve Shots Good, Two Shots Better.Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-74214750002918365672017-01-24T13:30:23.146+00:002017-01-24T13:30:23.146+00:00Hey, I just checked your numbers with statistics o...Hey, I just checked your numbers with statistics only and came to conclusion, the numbers are correct. Nothing to do with your method. If you have 2 shots you have a way higher chance of scoring one or two goals, but a lower chance of scoring more. For the 12-shot team they have a higher (but still low) chance of scoring more than 3 goals, but that doesnt really help because they would win with 3 goals anyway. And thats where they lose the winning effect of there expected goals. I can give you the spreadsheet if you want (just reply)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-45449678332534619792015-12-03T13:03:50.124+00:002015-12-03T13:03:50.124+00:00Hi Karolos,
it's a typo, should read "ex...Hi Karolos, <br />it's a typo, should read "expected goals allowed".<br /><br />cheers, MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-42651054596249938152015-12-03T12:49:49.890+00:002015-12-03T12:49:49.890+00:00There might be a problem with the simulation metho...There might be a problem with the simulation method.... or it is something I misunderstood: In the table showing the results of the simulation it is stated an "Av. Goals Allowed" of 1.2 in both cases. That doesn't look like guarranteeing an expected value of 1.2 GoalsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18000699775079457804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-63390970336462387892014-02-27T10:38:15.928+00:002014-02-27T10:38:15.928+00:00The simulation may be too abstract in that when a ...The simulation may be too abstract in that when a goal is scored will change a team's style and the number of opportunities they create. A side capable of having ten shots in a match can more easily have eleven than a side with two chances can have a third. <br /><br />I think Opta's 'big chances' measure badly put together. One-on-ones are generally harder chances than people realise, and e.g. unchallenged shots from a player running onto his best foot 20-25 yards out and pullbacks to the edge of the penalty area are easier chances.Dipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679325022325540461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-42299958868844999892014-02-14T08:08:28.963+00:002014-02-14T08:08:28.963+00:00Hi Jonny,
I'm sure we both agree that game sta...Hi Jonny,<br />I'm sure we both agree that game state (not just the current scoreline) is an extremely important factor in determining the balance of risk/reward strategies employed by each side. And that in turn may alter how they accumulate less commonly recorded data, such as shots at goal.<br /><br />You make a very good point.<br /><br />Mark.Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-41214543710414645632014-02-14T07:51:46.976+00:002014-02-14T07:51:46.976+00:00Hi Chris, i'll get back to you over the weeken...Hi Chris, i'll get back to you over the weekend. MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-54929487005684317392014-02-14T06:09:30.497+00:002014-02-14T06:09:30.497+00:00Interesting.
However your simulation was about tw...Interesting.<br /><br />However your simulation was about two evenly matched teams. Would the results be the same if you put two uneven teams together? For example compare a team with 4 x 50% shots against the two teams above.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-73988357349704358052014-02-13T16:52:50.959+00:002014-02-13T16:52:50.959+00:00Hey, I’m a chemical engineer, so while my knowledg...Hey, I’m a chemical engineer, so while my knowledge of statistics is limited to it’s application in my field, I would really like to get into football analytics, and I’d love to contribute, if possible, to your expected goals model. Could you tell me where the best publicly available data is, and, more importantly, the best way to access it? Thank you, Chris. The best place to contact me is ascriptlikethis@gmail.comChris Hoegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08369559018262235383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-55456846660389750512014-02-12T11:15:27.003+00:002014-02-12T11:15:27.003+00:00Excellent article . You may want to look at the af...Excellent article . You may want to look at the affect of game state on accuracy . Last 67 games in the top 5 leagues in Europe 0-1 HT and early away goal 0-20 mins and only 5/67 home wins so low expectation of a home win . The sotdoc.co.uk is doing some good work in this area as well . Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com