tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post6774194382314310395..comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00Comments on The Power of Goals.: Simulating a Single Game Using Expected Goals in Excel.Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-43359743724141410802016-08-23T13:01:29.660+01:002016-08-23T13:01:29.660+01:00Hi Mark saw your earlier reply on using a poisson ...Hi Mark saw your earlier reply on using a poisson calculation for team goal expectancy. Was wondering where would I start in terms of simulating the games for this? Cheers<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02912566863699924625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-67288498913671974792016-01-28T15:28:19.402+00:002016-01-28T15:28:19.402+00:00The example I've posted does, but you can twee...The example I've posted does, but you can tweek the poisson fit to get a better fit with reality.<br /><br />cheers, MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-52489485819217033812016-01-28T13:02:56.068+00:002016-01-28T13:02:56.068+00:00Hi Mark - does your Poisson calculation assume tha...Hi Mark - does your Poisson calculation assume that each sides goal total is independent?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-49159903763020174712016-01-23T10:28:26.723+00:002016-01-23T10:28:26.723+00:00Hi Arzu,
pre match, I'd suggest simply putting...Hi Arzu,<br />pre match, I'd suggest simply putting the expected goals for each side into a Poisson calculation.<br /><br />Using your example, you'd get around 23% Stoke win, 55% spurs win and 22% the draw.<br /><br />MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-77840064517193641362016-01-23T02:20:39.737+00:002016-01-23T02:20:39.737+00:00Hi Mark! And thanks for reply. in this case i wan...Hi Mark! And thanks for reply. in this case i want to ask is it possible to simulate single match if i know team goal expectancy. Example Stoke score 1.3 Spurs 2.1 prematch. ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02267319880860869705noreply@blogger.com