tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post7955603367261398100..comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00Comments on The Power of Goals.: Running a Simple Simulation With Excel.Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-37646966491250418142016-09-09T16:24:10.107+01:002016-09-09T16:24:10.107+01:00Hello! i'm looking for some open source data t...Hello! i'm looking for some open source data to build my own expected goals models... do u have some tips ? do u wanna share it? thanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10523573364594722655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-81768700160751623732016-07-13T10:09:14.378+01:002016-07-13T10:09:14.378+01:00Hi George,
the random number simply drives the sim...Hi George,<br />the random number simply drives the simulation. Each shot has a goal expectation based on historical precedent for shot type, location etc.<br /><br />So if a chance has an expected goals of say 0.1 and the random number turns up as 0.4, it's no goal. If the random number is <0.1, it's a goal. <br /><br />The expected goals figure represents the average player, not the random number.<br /><br />Rinse/repeat for every chance 1,000's of times.<br /><br />cheers, MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-24625798264811501022016-07-12T10:57:25.973+01:002016-07-12T10:57:25.973+01:00Hi Mark, do you mind explaining why the random num...Hi Mark, do you mind explaining why the random numbers allow you to represent the average PL player?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01807117999119941416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-58917035281269404462016-01-23T02:15:57.884+00:002016-01-23T02:15:57.884+00:00Many thanks MarkMany thanks MarkAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02267319880860869705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-47747407953218740862016-01-22T15:02:13.750+00:002016-01-22T15:02:13.750+00:00Hi Arzu,
I'll post how to do a single match i...Hi Arzu,<br /><br />I'll post how to do a single match in a day or two.<br /><br />Mark Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-27084716964274901732016-01-22T13:25:26.450+00:002016-01-22T13:25:26.450+00:00Hi! Thanks for this article. How simulate single...Hi! Thanks for this article. How simulate single match if i know goal expectancy of each team?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02267319880860869705noreply@blogger.com