tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00The Power of Goals.Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger327125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-9676837199928709152018-05-16T22:52:21.548+01:002018-05-16T22:52:21.548+01:00The name,s to distinguish an xG that is based on p...The name,s to distinguish an xG that is based on passes from expected goals figures that have been around for years and relate solely to the likelihood that an attempt on goal will result in a goalMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-17264567872091261772018-05-16T07:59:13.085+01:002018-05-16T07:59:13.085+01:00I understand why its called expected goal. But why...I understand why its called expected goal. But why do you call it "Non shot" ?? What does it suppose to mean?is it because its not a shot just a pass or?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05166284431008278730noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-82080088167038234982018-02-03T11:35:10.305+00:002018-02-03T11:35:10.305+00:00The points won by Everton, who are currently 9th, ...The points won by Everton, who are currently 9th, is the worst performance, relative to the rest of the current league, for that position after 25 games in the history of the 20 team top tier.<br />Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-6809726040165634402018-02-02T17:06:26.090+00:002018-02-02T17:06:26.090+00:00So Everton are the worst 9th placed team ever then...So Everton are the worst 9th placed team ever then?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-65327150159893082482017-11-28T09:00:44.413+00:002017-11-28T09:00:44.413+00:00Hi Paul,
the best raw data can be found at Joe'...Hi Paul,<br />the best raw data can be found at Joe's excellent site http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php Historical results in csv format for easy pasting into a spreadsheet. You can then set up a rolling average (just remember teams play home and away :-)).<br /><br />The xG rolling averages come from my work database, glad you like the blog.<br /><br />Mark<br />Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-76367456996552831642017-11-27T21:49:02.209+00:002017-11-27T21:49:02.209+00:00Hi Mark
Just reading through your site, absolutel...Hi Mark<br /><br />Just reading through your site, absolutely gripped. Is there a source of data on the web that can display form tables for 30+ games across seasons or do you draw it from your own database?<br /><br />ThanksPaul Mcgeehttps://plus.google.com/u/2/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-3707037510056625942017-07-17T09:23:27.740+01:002017-07-17T09:23:27.740+01:00Shot stopping is just one facet, but he does seem ...Shot stopping is just one facet, but he does seem to be fairly average , with a low shot volume. He doesn't make will's top ten.Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-53902988264714198312017-07-16T09:27:44.825+01:002017-07-16T09:27:44.825+01:00So Courtois is an extremely average keeper with a ...So Courtois is an extremely average keeper with a top class defence in front of him.JPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17986993593239001581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-74214750002918365672017-01-24T13:30:23.146+00:002017-01-24T13:30:23.146+00:00Hey, I just checked your numbers with statistics o...Hey, I just checked your numbers with statistics only and came to conclusion, the numbers are correct. Nothing to do with your method. If you have 2 shots you have a way higher chance of scoring one or two goals, but a lower chance of scoring more. For the 12-shot team they have a higher (but still low) chance of scoring more than 3 goals, but that doesnt really help because they would win with 3 goals anyway. And thats where they lose the winning effect of there expected goals. I can give you the spreadsheet if you want (just reply)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-89584491718011151232017-01-03T10:01:27.659+00:002017-01-03T10:01:27.659+00:00hi was just seeing if you minded a comment. i like...hi was just seeing if you minded a comment. i like your website and the thme you picked is super. I will be back.<br /><a href="http://africanamericanart.si.edu/myomeka/posters/show/21659" rel="nofollow">football betting tips</a>johnnyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01915780128741556109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-64818449595496088262016-11-23T03:06:43.218+00:002016-11-23T03:06:43.218+00:00Many thanks Mark very interestingMany thanks Mark very interestingAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02267319880860869705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-57554185825956305072016-10-30T15:14:50.381+00:002016-10-30T15:14:50.381+00:00Rugby players on average are able to kick longer a...Rugby players on average are able to kick longer as they are playing members of the team, usually a fly half. More muscular and athletic than the average kicker. The average guy kicking a rugby ball is going to be 6"2 and about 225-240lbs - as opposed to NFL kickers who average 205-215lbs.<br /> Accuracy rates can probably be attributed to the fact that an NFL football is snapped and held, vs a rugby ball which is perfectly positioned on a kicking tee. I'd say skill levels are probably fairly similar, both are professional athletes and if you gave a high level player of either sport ( eg Johnny Wilkinson/Adam Vinatieri) a chance at the other they would excel with a bit of practice.<br /> However very few NFL kickers if any could compete for a rugby position as they would also be required to fulfill all the other positional requirements (tackling, passing, possibly even running the team if fly half) as opposed to simply kicking. They dont even kick from the hand, teams generally have a seperate punter and place kicker in the NFL. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10475096253861721198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-65989827326613375422016-09-11T02:28:45.661+01:002016-09-11T02:28:45.661+01:00But rugby players don't have a hoard of player...But rugby players don't have a hoard of players bearing down on them, attempting to block their kicks from a few yards out. That must add a degree of pressure that rugby players just don't experience...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06606176393620117659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-37646966491250418142016-09-09T16:24:10.107+01:002016-09-09T16:24:10.107+01:00Hello! i'm looking for some open source data t...Hello! i'm looking for some open source data to build my own expected goals models... do u have some tips ? do u wanna share it? thanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10523573364594722655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-16004044670581776842016-08-26T14:57:38.539+01:002016-08-26T14:57:38.539+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-43359743724141410802016-08-23T13:01:29.660+01:002016-08-23T13:01:29.660+01:00Hi Mark saw your earlier reply on using a poisson ...Hi Mark saw your earlier reply on using a poisson calculation for team goal expectancy. Was wondering where would I start in terms of simulating the games for this? Cheers<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02912566863699924625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-84309577270120363862016-08-01T08:38:53.893+01:002016-08-01T08:38:53.893+01:00Hi Mike,
Column N is the 13 points Villa had with ...Hi Mike,<br />Column N is the 13 points Villa had with 15 games remaining plus the number of points they won in the iterations of the final 15 matches. <br /><br />So the first entry is 9 + 13 = 22.<br /><br />Column P just counts the number of times they end the season's iterations with a particular number of points. For example, 2 times out of 1,000 they ended with exactly 15 points.<br /><br />MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-81740199212022135242016-08-01T04:50:50.626+01:002016-08-01T04:50:50.626+01:00Hi,
How did you come up with those figures from N...Hi,<br /><br />How did you come up with those figures from N column and P and Q as well. thanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180579938715218515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-79761372062320103142016-07-14T17:05:23.240+01:002016-07-14T17:05:23.240+01:00Hi Mark
How to calculate those %outcomes basing o...Hi Mark<br />How to calculate those %outcomes basing on those xgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09773410084611841688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-82350844093919729342016-07-14T10:03:39.382+01:002016-07-14T10:03:39.382+01:00Hi Mark, great read, works a dream with the EPL. I...Hi Mark, great read, works a dream with the EPL. I'm using it along side other ratings to better gauge H-D-A probabilities and xGoals. <br /><br />I've tried applying this to the Bundesliga, but the figure to get total points (51) is far too high. Over the seasons I have looked at it over-predicts by about 16 points (while under-predicting Bayern and Dortmund by around the same). Not sure if this is due to there being less teams and therefore less games. What would be your thoughts on this? Not sure if I should just go with +35 instead of +51, or if this is even an adjustable figure.Peter McKeeverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02545202549079859525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-30747852267365387732016-07-13T10:16:40.278+01:002016-07-13T10:16:40.278+01:00Hi Eric,
you can use a smoothed or weighted avera...Hi Eric,<br /><br />you can use a smoothed or weighted average over a prolonged period of matches to get expected goals figures that are representative of the side's likely current abilities.<br /><br />cheers, Mark<br />Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-81768700160751623732016-07-13T10:09:14.378+01:002016-07-13T10:09:14.378+01:00Hi George,
the random number simply drives the sim...Hi George,<br />the random number simply drives the simulation. Each shot has a goal expectation based on historical precedent for shot type, location etc.<br /><br />So if a chance has an expected goals of say 0.1 and the random number turns up as 0.4, it's no goal. If the random number is <0.1, it's a goal. <br /><br />The expected goals figure represents the average player, not the random number.<br /><br />Rinse/repeat for every chance 1,000's of times.<br /><br />cheers, MarkMark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-24625798264811501022016-07-12T10:57:25.973+01:002016-07-12T10:57:25.973+01:00Hi Mark, do you mind explaining why the random num...Hi Mark, do you mind explaining why the random numbers allow you to represent the average PL player?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01807117999119941416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-46957858383522319072016-07-09T16:04:34.879+01:002016-07-09T16:04:34.879+01:00Did you use the Xg to calculate the Poison distrib...Did you use the Xg to calculate the Poison distribution?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09773410084611841688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-89972725868398884342016-07-04T10:49:01.204+01:002016-07-04T10:49:01.204+01:00Hi Albert,
hopefully they may see the light of day...Hi Albert,<br />hopefully they may see the light of day in the near future.<br /><br />cheers, Mark Mark Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.com