tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post7169993274689663861..comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00Comments on The Power of Goals.: Zidane, The Guardian, Pulisball and the Value of Statistics.Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-4758031460894663692014-02-27T10:12:05.447+00:002014-02-27T10:12:05.447+00:00As measures, 'shots' and 'shots on tar...As measures, 'shots' and 'shots on target' are aggregated at too high a level to be useful in every instance. A team's defense may restrict the opposition to a high number of shots from outside the area, which one would expect a keeper to save. Alternatively it could be breached repeatedly, allowing 1) shots from dangerous areas; 2) shots in breakaway situations, and 3) shots or headers from dead ball situations, all of which are more likely to result in a goal.<br /><br />A better representation of actual goal chances would measure not just headers as against shots on target but 1) shots from inside/outside the box, and 2) shots taken before/after 20 secs. of possession in the other team's half. There will always be value in designing some proxy for how likely a defense is to lose the ball and allow a chance and how deep a defense is playing. A deep defense is more likely to concede goals to shots from outside the box on deflections, especially after corners.Dipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14679325022325540461noreply@blogger.com