tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post822681658023869114..comments2024-01-17T05:39:39.990+00:00Comments on The Power of Goals.: Chelsea's Fool's Errand.Clean Sheets in the EPL Part Two.Mark Taylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15514407542599931686noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6059983310325678283.post-62724846758375953062012-01-13T13:16:36.107+00:002012-01-13T13:16:36.107+00:00I found this clean sheet trend a few weeks ago and...I found this clean sheet trend a few weeks ago and it really is pretty baffling. <br /><br />Quite simply if you regress the win rate (% of wins in total season) on goals scored, goals conceded, and clean sheets you find that a clean sheet increases win rate 0.87% whilst a goal scored increases win rate by only 0.54% (for completeness conceding a goal is worth -0.28%. The p value for all is well below 1%. The R^2 for this model is 0.943. I presume it was this test that interested Chelsea. <br /><br />If you regress the win rate on only goals scored and goals conceded, a goal scored is as valuable but a goal conceded becomes worth -0.53%. The R^2 for this model drops to 0.928. Make of this what you will.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com