How the Euro 2012 Group Games May Have Turned Out.

Each country has now played two matches at Euro 2012 and the probable qualifiers from each of the four groups are beginning to emerge.However,the results from a pair of games are likely to contain a fair amount of luck and teams may owe their presence at the top or the bottom of the tables to a couple of fairly random events.One way to see which teams have enjoyed a smooth passage and which ones haven't is to compare their actual number of points with their high and low points over the two games.

Italy for example have found themselves in very good positions in both of their matches,but they haven't seen either game through to the end.Just prior to their two opponents,Spain and Croatia each grabbing an equaliser,Italy had respectively a 62% and 78% chance of taking all three points from each of those games.

Sweden are already going home having failed to pick up a points in their opening two matches,despite leading in both and owning a near 70% chance of taking all three points in each game.

The figures below are much more descriptive of what has occurred rather than being predictive of what may happen in the last group games or the knockout phase.But they do illustrate how teams are vulnerable to luck in such competitions.Spain were more likely to take nothing from the Italy game at their low point than they were to take all three points in the same game where they eventually finished with a point.And England had a 68% chance of returning either pointless or with all three points from different stages of their match with Sweden and they somehow took home all the spoils.

Making too much of "form" shown over just two games often distorts a team's underlying level of talent.The true talent of each team at Euro 2012 indicated by a weighted sample of results over a much longer timescale probably hasn't changed much for the addition of two extra results.

The Highest Chances of Taking either 3 or 0 Points Achieved by Teams at Euro 2012 After Two Group Games.

COUNTRY	Probablity High for 3 Points.	Probability  High for 3 Points.	Probability High for 0 Points.	Probability High for 0 Points.	Actual Points.	Actual Points.
	1st Game.	2nd Game.	1st Game	2nd Game.	1st Game.	2nd Game.
Germany.	100	100	21	34	3	3
Spain.	54	100	62	8	1	3
Russia.	100	75	28	31	3	1
Italy.	62	78	54	32	1	1
England.	68	100	36	68	1	3
France.	36	100	68	28	1	3
Croatia.	100	32	32	78	3	1
Czech Republic.	28	100	100	35	0	3
Portugal.	21	100	100	28	0	3
Poland.	94	31	59	75	1	1
Sweden.	67	68	100	100	0	0
Denmark.	100	28	63	100	3	0
Ukraine.	100	28	67	100	3	0
Greece.	59	35	94	100	1	0
Holland.	63	34	100	100	0	0
R.O.I	32	8	100	100	0	0