The rise of the shot model has led to a variety of ways to calculate goal expectation for shots and headers taken from different areas of the pitch. The inputs that go into the calculations can also be many and varied, ranging from shot placement and power to whether they chance originated from open play or a set piece. But the prime drivers for the likelihood that a goal is scored remains how far and wide from the goal the attempt is taken and if the attempt was a shot or a header.
In this guest post I've broken down the basic method used throughout this blog into a couple of relatively easy steps to allow anyone to be able to create average goal probabilities for any shot or header attempted from anywhere on the pitch.
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