Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Expected Goals Shot on Target Profiles, Premier League, 2015/16.

Just a quick data dump on the distribution of expected goals from shots on target allowed and created by all 20 Premier League teams over the 2015/16 season.

Fairly obviously the better teams create more of the latter and allow fewer of the former, but there are also a couple of noticeable quirks, such as Arsenal's lack of speculative, low expectation attempts.

There's also the well known trade off between creating fewer big chances and spreading your expected goals across many more lower expectation attempts. Balancing the increased chances of scoring at least once against the smaller likelihood of a goal glut.

I've fitted a trend line to try to make the plots easier on the eye.

Attempts made are in blue and those allowed in orange. Teams with strong underlying figures therefore will have blue above orange (See Spurs) and poor teams the reverse (see Aston Villa).

Teams which had the latter, but finished in the top ten probably had a very good keeper (see Stoke).

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