Expected Points Graphs for EPL Games,December 3rd 2011.

At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.


Aston Villa 0 Manchester United 1.

Scorers:
0-1,Jones,20'

Manchester City 5 Norwich 1.

Scorers:
1-0,Aguero,32'
2-0,Nasri,51'
3-0,Toure,68,
3-1,Morison,81.
4-1,Balotelli,88'
5-1,Johnson,90'

Blackburn 4 Swansea 2.

Scorers:
1-0,Yakubu,20'
1-1,Lita,35'
2-1,Yakubu,45'
3-1,Yakubu,57'
3-2,Moore,66'
Red Card,Allen(Swansea),81'
4-2,Yakubu(pen),82'

QPR 1 WBA 1. 

Scorers:
1-0,Helguson,20'
1-1,Long,81'

Tottenham 3 Bolton 0.

Scorers:
1-0,Bale,7'
Red Card,Cahill(Bolton),18'
2-0,Lennon,50'
3-0,Defoe,60'

Newcastle 0 Chelsea 3.

Scorers:
0-0,Penalty awarded to Chelsea,13'
0-0,Penalty Missed,Lampard,14'
0-1,Drogba,38'
0-2,Kalou,89'
0-3,Sturridge,90'

Wigan 0 Arsenal 4.

Scorers:
0-1,Arteta,28'
0-2,Vermaelen,29'
0-3,Gervinho,61'
0-4,van Persie,79'

Expected Points Graphs for EPL Games,November 26th 2011.

Stoke3 Blackburn 1.

Scorers:
1-0,Delap,28'
2-0,Whelan,58'
3-0,Crouch,72'
3-1,Rochina,86'

Bolton 0 Everton 2.

Scorers:
Red Card,Wheater(Bolton),19'
1-0,Fellaini,49'
2-0,Vellios,78'

Chelsea 3 Wolves 0.

Scorers:
1-0,Terry,7'
2-0,Sturridge,30'
3-0,Mata,45'

Manchester United 1 Newcastle 1.

Scorers:
1-0,Hernandez,49'
1-1,Ba(pen),64'
Red Card,Gutierrez,(Newcastle) 79'.


Norwich 2 QPR 1.

Scorers:
1-0,Martin,14'
1-1,Young,59'
2-1,Holt,73'

Sunderland 1 Wigan 2.

Scorers:
1-0,Larsson,8'
1-1,Gomez(pen),44'
1-2,Di Santo,90+3'

WBA 1 Tottenham 3.

Scorers:
1-0,Mulumbu,10'
1-1,Adebayor(pen),26'
1-2,DeFoe,81'
1-3,Adebayor,90+2'

Arsenal 1 Fulham 1.

Scorers:
0-1,Vermaelen(og),65'
1-1,Vermaelen,82'

Expected Points Graphs for EPL Games,November 19th 2011.

Norwich 1 Arsenal 2.

Scorers:
1-0,Morison,16'
1-1,van Persie,27'
1-2,van Persie,59'

Everton 2 Wolves 1.

Scorers:
0-1,Hunt(pen),37'
1-1,Jagielka,44'
2-1,Baines(pen),83'


Stoke 2 QPR 3.

Scorers:
1-0,Walters,8'
1-1,Helguson,22'
1-2,Young,44'
1-3,Helguson,54'
2-3,Shawcross,64'


Wigan 3 Blackburn 3.

Scorers:
0-1,Yakubu,2'
1-1,Gomez,8'
2-1,Caldwell,31'
Red Card,Dunn(Blackburn),48'
2-2,Hoilett,60'
3-2,Crusat,88'
3-3,Yakubu(pen),90+9'.

Measuring the Fun in Football.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.


Expected Points graphs do a very good job of illustrating the ebbs of flows of a soccer match and the large swings caused by the relatively rare occurance of a goal is particularly evident.However,they can also be used to quantify more subjective aspect of a game such as entertainment value.

There are a number of factors that contribute towards a game being more or less entertaining and these can be captured by reference to an EP Graph.Swings in fortunes during the game,late winners,spirited comebacks and impressive performances by an unfancied underdog each can contribute towards making a game worth watching and all can be tracked.

While it would be possible to track all of the movements in EP during the match,it's much more useful to be able to simply and quickly get an idea of how eventful a game has been by just looking at the EP graph.One such method is to sum each team's highest EP during the game and divide it by the sum of each teams lowest EP during the 90 minutes.

Under this approach the ManU Basel 3-3 draw scores an Entertainment Value (EV) of around 23.ManU's highest Expected Points Value was almost 3 just after Welbeck's second goal,Basel's was just under 2.6 in the 89th minute just prior to Young's equaliser.United's EP was at a low of 0.24 and Basel's was 0.01.A similarly switchback game where Blackburn came from behind to defeat Arsenal 4-3 earlier this month scores an EV of 14.

Blackburn 4-3 Arsenal,full of incidents and a great come from behind win and a Entertainment Value of 14

By contrast,Tottenham's wide margin all the way 4-0 win over Liverpool scores an EV of just over 3,as does Swansea's 3-0 canter verses WBA.The Welsh side's dour 0-0 draw with Sunderland totals only 1.3.

Little incident in a fairly standard goalless draw for a EV of 1.3

Expected Points Graphs for EPL Games,September 17th & 18th 2011.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each EPL game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

Blackburn 4-3 Arsenal.


The best game of the weekend from a neutral perspective.Arsenal owned the first half and Blackburn's manager,Steve Keane couldn't have been looking forward to his promised showdown with disgruntled fans.The Gunners then self destructed,this time on the defensive,rather than disciplinary front,but a they were a Paul Robinson injury time block away from a second 4-4 all draw within a year.Blackburn managed a goals to shots ratio of more than one after Arsenal's own goals.You get a 4-4 about once every 1,200 games.4-3's are more common,about 1 every 300 generally,but 1 in 500 when the much weaker team comes out the winner.

Scorers.
0-1,Gervinho,10'
1-1,Yakubu,25'
1-2,Arteta,34'
2-2,Song(og),50'
3-2,Yakubu,59'
4-2,Koscielny(og),68'
4-3,Chamakh,85'
................................................................................


Aston Villa 1-1 Newcastle.


Villa spent an hour hopeful of a three point haul,but not certain of it.Only home advantage made the Midlands team favoured,pre game and the decrease in EP upon Newcastle's equaliser emphasised how costly drawing from a winning position can be.





Scorers.
1-0,Agbonlahor,13'

1-1,Best,57'


....................................................................


Bolton 1-2 Norwich.  


Norwich gained the kind of reward some of their play this season has deserved.They replaced Bolton as EP favourites after the first strike and were greatly helped by the Klasnic red card.They remained much the most likely winners,even when Bolton halved their lead.Bolton still haven't recovered from their semi final mauling last April.

Scorers.
0-1,Pilkington,37'
0-2,Johnson,42'
Red Card Klasnic (Bolton),45'
1-2,Petrov(pen),64'
...................................................................


Everton 3-1 Wigan.


Wigan's opening goal was quickly cancelled out and both team's EP were trending towards 1 until Everton's two late strikes.



Scorers.
0-1,Di Santo,31'
1-1,Jagilka,33'
2-1,Vellios,84'
3-1,Drenthe,90'
..................................................................


Swansea 3-0 WBA.


A fairly unremarkable game statistically as the marginal favourites scored a couple of early goals to nudge the EP within touching distance of three and then comfortably ran the clock down.In reality a massive result at the Liberty against potential fellow relegation candidates.



Scorers.
1-0,Sinclair(pen),14'
2-0,Lita,24'
3-0,Dyer,49'
..................................................................


Wolves 0-3 QPR.


Another comfortable victory curve for the moneyed newcomers as Wolves' start becomes a distant memory and QPR's cash appears to have been well spent.

Scorers.
0-1,Barton,8'
0-2,Faurlin,10'
0-3,Campbell,87'
..................................................................


Tottenham 4-0 Liverpool.


Spurs' early goal split the two equally matched teams,but after that all the damage was self inflicted by Liverpool.Two red cards are fairly rare and by the time of the second one there was very little chance that Liverpool would be able to score and it was overwhelmingly likely that Tottenham would add to the Modric strike.Game over after an hour,even at just 1-0.

Scorers.
1-0,Modric,7'
Red Card,Adam(Livepool),28'
Red Card,Skrtel(Liverpool),63'
2-0,Defoe,66'
3-0,Adebayor,68'
4-0,Adebayor,90'
...................................................................


Sunderland 4-0 Stoke.


Another cakewalk for the side scoring first.A game of little interest after the two early goals unless you were a Sunderland fan.

Scorers.
1-0,Bramble,5'
2-0,Woodgate(og),11'
3-0,Gardner,28'
4-0,Larsson,59'
..................................................................


Fulham 2-2 Man City.


Comeback performance runner up of the week award goes to Fulham,who were very impressive in recovering from a two goal deficit against markedly superior opponents.The Cottagers' EP had hit the floor after almost an hour and that's where it was heading again until Murphy's late leveller.

Scorers.
0-1,Aguero,18'
0-2,Aguero,46'
1-2,Zamora,56'
2-2,Murphy,75'
.....................................................................


Man Utd 3-1 Chelsea.


A seemingly comfortable Man U win concealing a hand full of "what ifs".To take the most obvious one,if Torres had scored instead of missing an 83rd minute open goal,the score would have been 3-2 to United.About 12 minutes remained and Chelsea's EP would have increased over tenfold from 0.01 Expected Points to 0.13 EP.However, Man Utd would still score around 60% of any subsequent goals,it was odds on that there wouldn't be any anyway and the home side's EP would still have been 2.75.In a nutshell,if Torres had scored,Man Utd would still go on to win 9 times out of 10.Of course Sir Alex would argue that Chelsea should have been down to 10 men by then anyway.

Scorers.
1-0,Smalling,8'
2-0,Nani,37'
3-0,Rooney,45'
3-1,Torres,49'