EPL Referees Appear To Show Disproportionately More Red Cards To the Away Side.

A glossary of terms is in the pipeline,but for the meantime.....The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected long term average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

It should come as no surprise to discover that in games where one red card is issued,then that card is more likely to be shown to the visiting side.The home side more often will have the better chance of winning the game,therefore the away side will be forced to do more defending,sometimes against superior players,which will lead to more fouls,more yellow cards and ultimately more chance of a red.In the 300+ EPL games spread over the last 7 seasons where a red card was shown over 60% of the time it was shown to the away side.To further test our idea that poorer sides are more likely to attract red cards we first need a way of quantifying pre game team quality.One very good way to represent the difference in quality between teams prior to the game starting is to compare each side's Pre Game Expected Points tallies.And once again we find that the underdog,irrespective of venue receives over 60% of dismissals in games where a single red card is shown.The average Pre Game Expected Points for the team who receives the red card is 1.29 compared to 1.45 for the team that doesn't see red.