Friday, 17 October 2014

Your Biggest Opponent Might Be Your Teammate.

In attempting to answer the question “how good is a striker?”, the focus unsurprisingly falls on their goal scoring abilities. Raw goal scoring totals have been replaced by such statistics as “goals per 90 minutes” to reflect playing opportunity, often with corrections to remove penalty kicks and to allow for the different scoring environments that are present later in a game.

Latterly, actual goals have been replaced by expected goals, based on the likelihood that an average player would score with a shot or header from a particular location on the pitch. 

The ability to get into good scoring positions may be as important as the successful execution of a chance.

Random variation may in the short term produce actual goal tallies that flatter or under value a player and so his “virtual” goal per minute numbers may be a better indicator of his likely long term scoring potential.

The difference in talent levels at the very top level of finishing is likely to be very small and the ability to outwit the defence and fashion a chance may be more important than short term goal scoring achievements.

The opposing defence is quite naturally considered the natural opponent of a striker trying to amass expected goal value, but often there is also another factor that might cause his numbers to rise or fall.

Liverpool was fortunate to be able to call on two exceptional strikers, last season. Both Suarez and Sturridge reached impressive, respective goal totals, both real and expected. In addition, both missed playing time for a variety of reasons. But Liverpool was able to call on at least one of the pair for every Premiership game.

Suarez’s suspension left the striking stage clear for Sturridge at the start of the season and then the roles were then reversed when the latter missed a run of matches from early November to mid-January.

While in tandem, the two strikers could possibly be competing for the best chances created by their teammates, while in the other’s absence, each may have laid claim to the majority of the prime opportunities.

Therefore, I looked at each goal attempt made by Suarez and Sturridge over the 2013/14 Premiership season as defined by shot location and type. And, reflecting the wider picture, these primary parameters were significant indicators of whether a goal was likely or not to be scored.

I then added a variable to differentiate between when both Suarez and Sturridge were on the pitch and when just one of the strikers was present. This new variable was also a significant indicator of likely success, reducing the likelihood of a goal being scored when the duo were playing together.

In the case of Sturridge, his expected goal per game number falls from 0.9 when he flies solo to 0.67 when he partnered Suarez. A fall of nearly 30%.

The same is seen for Suarez, 1.1 expected goals per game alone and 0.75 when paired with Sturridge. Once again, this is a fall of around 30%.

We are looking at nearly 300 total attempts, but the results may just be a quirk of this dataset. However, on a shot by shot basis, it does appear that the players are taking a bigger proportion of low expectation attempts and fighting over the prime cuts when both are playing.

Suarez’s average goal expectation per attempt fell from 0.23 to 0.14 when Sturridge joined him on the field. Sturridge’s comparative figures went from 0.27 to 0.18 per attempt.

This is a single case involving two extremely high class finishers and there are at least eight other outfielders to consider, but it perhaps seems that the pair as a duo may have been shooting sometimes, when the position was too heavily defended.

This may have had implications for Liverpool’s strategy when both played, although it is now a moot point.

Perhaps more pertinently, each player appears to depress the expected goal record of the other by their considerable presence on the field. And this may have implications for player assessment as well as projection at future clubs, where the most difficult opponent to overcome in posting impressive scoring statistics may well be your teammate. 

Luis Suarez debuts for Barcelona in the near future. 

Friday, 10 October 2014

Chelsea Impressive Start to the Season.

Chelsea have been impossible to ignore this season. They have either been bullying teams in their own six yard box or jostling for space in their own technical area.

Either way they have been posting extremely impressive raw shooting data and even when their relatively benign strength of schedule is accounted for, they are the Premiership's best performing side to date.

And when you additionally incorporate the distribution of big chances they are creating they pull even further ahead of their challengers.

The strength of schedule is one of the issues looked at in this post  

And their slew of big chance are put under the spotlight here

Sunday, 5 October 2014

A Round Up of September's Articles.

A round up of September's articles which try to make use of the new information we are gradually gathering about the Premiership teams as we reach half a dozen games.

Swansea and Villa were obvious targets as two sides who were running hot, but don't have the underlying statistical indicators or recent history of being a top six team to maintain their current positions. Gary Monk was Manager of the Month in August and Roy Keane was celebrated as a more effective assistant than he was in the role of manager.

They have a combined five points from a possible 24 in September.

Newcastle and WBA were both noted as probable mid table teams who were out of place at the foot of the table and the record of promoted teams was used to heap on bit of praise on Leicester.

Just click the links below.

A Look at Leicester City

When the Weather Becomes a Significant Factor in the NFL

Chelsea's Hot Start to the Season

Swansea and Villa May not be as Good as their Early Season Results Suggest

Scoring First in the EPL and why Newcastle are probably in a False Position

A Round up of Week 5 in the EPL, Plus a Look at Red Cards.

Why Aston Villa's Narrative Needed A Bit of Statistical Context.

Sir Geoff Hurst > James Milner.

also check out Marvellous if you can get BBC iplayer where you live. You don't have to be a Stoke fan to enjoy the life story of Stoke's onetime kit man (& clown) Neil Baldwin.