Monday, 17 October 2011

Game of the Weekend. Birmingham v Leicester.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

0-0,Referee Salisbury is replaced by Mr Wright,45'
0-0 Penalty awarded to Birmingham,50'
1-0,Red Card for Mills,Leicester,56'

Substitutions can have a major impact on match results and so it proved when recently relegated Birmingham
 entertained Sven Goran Eriksson's Leicester City in the televised midday kickoff at St Andrews.

The bright start to the game had matched the weather,but like the unseasonal weather,it was destined to be short lived and the game settled down into a scrappy midfield battle with little quality on show at either ends of the field.The first half was as dull as it's Expected Points graph was featureless,but all that changed within ten minutes of the restart.

As substitutions go this game changing one was unusual.Starting referee Graham Salisbury's calf strain saw fourth official Kevin Wright take the field for the second half and he quickly found himself involved in two massive EP shifting decisions.

Firstly,he awarded Brum a 50th minute penalty following Andy King's tackle on Beausejour.On first viewing in real time it looked a harsh call,but repeated replays confirmed that it was indeed the wright call.

Mr Wright then dismissed Leicester's Mills for a two footed,partially airborne lunge just five minutes after the spot kick was converted by Marlon King.Both decisions were correct,but the travelling supporters predictably sang "1-0 to the referee" until Wood finished them off 7 minutes from time.

The penalty award reduced the Foxes EP from 1.26 to 0.65,King's successful conversion further reduced it to 0.44 and Mills' moment of madness sent it all the way down to 0.099.

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