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Sunday, 26 February 2012

Defending a 2-0 lead in the EPL.

One of the many hoary old football myths is that the hardest lead to defend is 2-0.The leading team feels the win is already in the bag and the opposition,with little to lose,play with much more freedom,take outrageous chances and soon the score is back to all square.Of course the reason we think that a team is very vulnerable when leading by two goals is because we tend to remember the times when that lead collapses and forget the more numerous occasions when the lead is converted to a win.

2-0 isn't a dangerous place to find yourself in,it's actually a very comfortable spot.

Below I've listed the chances of various teams converting just such a lead into three points and then I've charted real outcomes of three such games from the weekend round of Premiership matches.No prizes for guessing which game will live long in the memory and which one will be forgotten by next  week.....although watching a pressing,long ball side (Stoke) totally frustrate and disrupt a short,possession based side (Swansea),did have it's attractions.26% of the possession equalling 100% of the points.

Scenarios for Teams who Lead 2-0.

Chance of Winning from 2-0 after 40 mins Chance of Winning from 2-0 after 60 mins.
Average Team at Home to Average Team.
93.5% 95.8%
Average Team Away to Average Team.
86.0% 91.2%
Top Team at Home to Average Team.
98.9% 99.2%
Average Team at Home to Top Team.
74.7% 83.7%

Arsenal 5 Tottenham 2.






























Scorers.
0-1,Saha,4'
0-2,Adebayor(pen),34'
1-2,Sagna,41'
2-2,van Persie,43'
3-2,Rosicky,51'
4-2,Walcott,65'
5-2,Walcott,68'
5-2,Red Card,Parker,(Spurs),87'.

Newcastle 2 Wolves 2.






























Scorers.
1-0,Cisse,6'
2-0,Gutierrez,18'
2-1,Jarvis,51'
2-2,Doyle,66'

Stoke 2 Swansea 0. 




















Scorers.
1-0,Upson,25'
2-0,Crouch,39'.

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