Quantifying Delap's Long Throws.

One of the central ideas behind  the "Moneyball" approach to running a successful sports team is the identification of undervalued player skills that can contribute greatly to winning matches and then purchasing these skills cheaply and creating strategies that help your team be successful.It can be argued that one of the most high profile and productive examples of such a strategy  occurred in the English Premiership when Stoke manager,Tony Pulis secured English born,former Irish international,Rory Delap from Sunderland on a free transfer.

The Prelude to a low,flat delivery

Delap's career started at Carlisle,before he spent four seasons at Derby.Throughout his career he was never a prolific goalscorer and the eight EPL goals he claimed to make him leading scorer for the Rams in 1999/00 was more a reflection on their lack of firepower than his scoring prowess.Never the less,a season later he made his one and only big money transfer move when Southampton paid in excess of £4 million for his services.Once again his employers received good,honest work rate in return for their outlay and a goal a season for five seasons.However,even with such a mediocre scoring rate,Delap still managed to attract the attention of the wider footballing public by scoring the best overhead bicycle kick goal of all time against Spurs in 2004,eclipsing even Rooney's effort nearly a decade later.

A short and unproductive free transfer to Sunderland saw him surplus to a new manager's requirements and within just three seasons he found himself wearing his third different set of red and white stripes at Stoke.Firstly on loan,but with a view to a permanent switch.When a 51/49 touchline collision,ironically against Sunderlnd saw him sidelined for the year only 95 minutes into his loan period,Stoke could have easily turned their back on the proposed deal and sent their stricken loanee back to Wearside,but instead the Potters immediately indicated their intent to honour the deal and sign Delap.Their actions were widely interpreted as an example of old world "word is my bond" business ethics that had led Stoke's owner to create two hugely successful enterprises,with the benefit of hindsight a determination to secure a rare,if not unique talent was also at the heart of the deal.

During a dozen seasons of his professional career, Delap's longthrows had produced one goal at Carlisle,one Derby and three at Southampton,but his move to Stoke was about to take the tactic to whole new levels of production.The Potters hadn't yet narrowed their playing area to maximize Delap's delivery,but he bettered his career assists total in his first full season for his new club.Six of his eight assists broke the deadlock in games,three came away from the Britannia Stadium and Stoke were unbeaten in all eight matches.His throw assisted scores added over six Expected Points to Stoke's points haul in their promotion year and while Expected Points are a partly abstract concept (it quantifies by how much the goal has advanced a team's chances of securing either a win or a draw),it seems very likely that Stoke would have fallen into the playoffs without Delap's contribution.

Expected Points Value of Goals Scored from Delap Throws,2007/08 Championship Season.

Opponent.	Expected Points Pre Goal.	Expected Points Post Goal.	Pre Goal Scoreline.	Increase in Expected Points.	Game Result.
Plymouth	0.583	1.572	1-2	0.99	W 3-2
QPR	1.812	2.477	0-0	0.67	W 3-1
@ Plymouth	1.290	2.071	0-0	0.78	D 2-2
Hull	1.766	2.531	0-0	0.77	D 1-1
Preston	1.837	2.515	0-0	0.68	W 3-1
Scunthorpe	0.352	0.951	0-2	0.60	W 3-2
@Norwich	1.264	2.337	0-0	1.07	W 1-0
@Colchester	2.060	2.627	0-0	0.57	W 1-0
Expected Points added per Appearance	0.14	Total Expected Points added.	6.12	Expected Points added per assist.	0.76

Delap's long throws became an international phenomenon on Stoke's return to the Premiership.A narrow but legal pitch combined with one high profile scalp in Arsenal ensured that the tactic remained on the back pages.A high leverage winning assist in Stoke's first home game of the season turned a single home point into a virtually assured three and settled the nerves of a team who had been comprehensively outclassed at Bolton on opening day.The win loss record when Delap provided an assist was slightly inferior to the previous year in the Championship,but there were two high leverage winning assisted goals at home to fellow relegation candidates,Sunderland and Middlesbro'.In terms of keeping Stoke competitive during a difficult first season Delap's throws were invaluable,especially at home.

Expected Points Value of Goals Scored from Delap Throws,2008/09 Premiership Season.

Opponent.	Expected Points Pre Goal.	Expected Points Post Goal.	Pre Goal Scoreline.	Increase in Expected Points.	Game Result.
Aston Villa	1.004	2.816	2-2	1.81	W 3-2
Eveton	0.079	0.366	0-2	0.29	L 2-3
@Portsmouth	0.235	0.846	0-1	0.61	L 1-2
Sunderland	1.261	2.531	0-0	1.27	W 1-0
Arsenal 1st goal	0.605	1.298	0-0	0.69
Arsenal 2nd goal	2.122	2.772	1-0	0.65	W 2-1
Bolton	2.528	2.924	1-0	0.40	W 2-0
Middlesbro'	1.248	2.744	0-0	1.50	W 1-0
Expected Points added per Appearance	0.21	Total Expected Points added.	7.22	Expected Points added per assist.	0.90

The 2009/10 season marked the first signs of a steady decline in the effectiveness of the tactic.Five additional assists in Stoke's run to the FA Cup quarter finals partly masked the decline in productivity in the league matches.The value of the goals in the context of the scoreline when they occurred decreased markedly from the previous two years as did Delap's assisted Expected Point added per appearance.Teams actively prepared for the challenge posed by the longthrow,advertising boards were moved closer to the pitch resulting in just one assist in the league away from the Britannia and referees began to pay more attention to the aerial bombardment that opposing keepers faced.

Expected Points Value of Goals Scored from Delap Throws,2009/10 Premiership Season.

Opponent.	Expected Points Pre Goal.	Expected Points Post Goal.	Pre Goal Scoreline.	Increase in Expected Points.	Game Result.
Burnley	2.516	2.873	1-0	0.36	W 2-0
Wolves	2.502	2.878	1-0	0.38	D 2-2
Blackburn	2.401	2.843	1-0	0.44	W 3-0
Arsenal	0.855	1.602	0-0	0.75	L 1-3
@Burnley	1.283	2.123	0-0	0.84	D 1-1
Expected Points added per Appearance	0.08	Total Expected Points added.	2.76	Expected Points added per assist.	0.55

The decline of the previous season was arrested in 2010/11,but the previous highs were never threatened and only four league goals came from Delap assists.However,three were relatively high value scores resulting in a healthy Expected Points per assist.Over half the goals scored following a Delap throw over the last two seasons have come in Cup competitions,reinforcing the thought that the surprise factor of the tactic no longer exists in the EPL.

Expected Points Value of Goals Scored from Delap Throws,2010/11 Premiership Season.

Opponent.	Expected Points Pre Goal.	Expected Points Post Goal.	Pre Goal Scoreline.	Increase in Expected Points.	Game Result.
Liverpool	1.110	2.182	0-0	1.07	W 2-0
@WBA	3.000	3.000	2-0	0	W 3-0
Sunderland	0.808	1.633	0-1	0.83	W 3-2
Aston Villa	0.980	1.802	0-0	0.82	D 1-1
Expected Points added per Appearance	0.07	Total Expected Points added.	2.72	Expected Points added per assist.	0.68

Delap continues to be a regular in Pulis' Stoke City sides in the current season,but the threat from his throws has failed to produce a single league goal so far.Ricardo Fuller,a major beneficiary of Delap's delivery has become a peripheral member of the squad and the expensive addition of Peter Crouch hasn't produced a score to add to the one the pair combined for seven years ago when both were Southampton players.

Expected Points Value of Goals Scored from Delap Throws,2011/12 Premiership Season.


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