Monday, 2 July 2012

Euro 2012 Performance Ratings.

Using the methodology outlined in this post here are the performance ratings from the Euro 2012 Finals.Enough games are played at the finals to ensure that every team has collateral form with each other,even if you have to go through one or two intermediaries. For example England are connected to Poland via Italy,Germany and Greece.The best fit ratings for the numerous interactions are expressed in goal difference,eliminating the skewing effect of three points for a win in the group stages.Although a maximum of six games for the finalists is almost always insufficient to produce predictive as opposed to descriptive ratings,the results from this year's competition threw up few unfavoured results and so the goal rating mirrors the current European pecking order fairly well.

Italy were particularly unlucky to have to play for the last thirty minutes of the tournament with just 10 men through little fault of their own and that would have cost them around half a goal on average in that game.Joint hosts Poland and Ukraine's ratings also include their home advantage which inflates their individual ratings by about 4 tenths of a goal.

Performance Ratings from Euro 2012.

TEAM. Goal Difference. Games Played. Rating in Goals.
Spain. 11 6 1.85
Germany. 4 5 1.30
Italy. -1 6 1.23
Croatia. 1 3 1.16
Portugal. 2 5 1.15
Russia. 2 3 1.14
England. 2 4 1.10
Poland. -1 3 0.90
Sweden. 0 3 0.84
Denmark. -1 3 0.84
France. -2 4 0.83
Greece. -2 4 0.76
Czech Republic. -2 4 0.73
Holland -3 3 0.58
Ukraine. -2 3 0.58
Rep of Ireland. -8 3 0

Spain unsurprisingly top the performance ratings.They had a goal difference of +11 over six games and despite only winning 66% of their games inside the 90 minutes and a schedule that included the tournament's worst side in Ireland,they were almost half a goal ahead of their nearest challengers,Germany.They did play fellow finalists,Italy twice.

Germany edged third placed Italy even though the latter beat the former in the semi finals.A strong group stage showing helped Germany as potentially did their avoidance of Spain.Italy bookend with England to head a clutch of similarly performing teams before home field assisted Poland usher in a group of third tier nations comprising France,Denmark and Sweden.

Holland's 14th  ranking isn't surprising given that they failed to gain a point,but the narrowness of their defeats against two of the competitions semi finalists hiked their rating to within touching distance of some of the mid to lower ranked sides.Ukraine will be disappointed to have achieved such a lowly score especially with the benefit of home advantage.Ireland were outclassed throughout.

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