Red Cards and Goals in the EPL.

The goal scoring expectation of a side is reduced if they are shown a red card and they also become likely to concede goals in the remainder of the match at a higher rate than previously. But are more talented sides more able to overcome a numerical disadvantage than less talented ones and  how does this impact on the amount of match goals we should expect to see in a contest in which a red card is shown.

In my guest post I look at every red card match in the EPL since 2005, comparing the goal expectancy values immediately prior to the dismissal with the reality of how 10 actually fared against 11.

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