An old post from a year ago that is available on the OptaPro site, but I forgot to ever link it here.
It uses Opta data to relate game state, expressed as a percentage of a side's initial points expectation to shooting type, efficiency and outcomes. It ties in well with some of the recent posts here based around shots, blocks and goals.
It can be found here.
http://www.optasportspro.com/en/about/optapro-blog/posts/2012/guest-blog-scoring-efficiency-and-current-score-by-mark-taylor.aspx
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