I've included links to some of the articles I've written over the previous month, which have been published by Pinnaclesports and BettingExpert
As ever the aim is to highlight the impact that random variation can have on sporting contests and the dangers of mistaking random noise for actual repeatable talent.
Was the Suarez deal good for Liverpool?
How easy is it to win the Manager off the Month Award?
Predicting Premiership Points Totals.
The Value of Direct Free kicks.
What Possession figures in reveal in football
Will the top Premiership teams suffer a post World Cup Hangover?
Can Total Shot Ratio help to predict match outcomes?
Are Corners Really Worthless?
The all Madrid Champions League Final.
Friday, 8 August 2014
Tuesday, 8 July 2014
How Good Was Tim Howard's Performance Against Belgium?
Tim Howard's 17 shot stopping effort against Belgium has been hailed as the "best ever" World Cup performance. But how good was it and what do displays, such as Tim Krul's penalty shootout heroics say about knee jerk reactions based on small sample sizes.
read more here.
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/what-howard-and-kruls-goalkeeping-heroics-says-about-evaluating-performance
read more here.
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/what-howard-and-kruls-goalkeeping-heroics-says-about-evaluating-performance
Tuesday, 10 June 2014
A Partial Explanation.
By way of an apology to those who have recently visited the blog expecting a new post or two. A couple of events have prevented me from posting as frequently as previously, one of which I'll share.
Firstly, I have been extremely grateful for the opportunity to write for BettingExpert.com for the last couple of years and my content continues to appear there, along with many other fine insights.
In addition, Pinnaclesports.com have also given me the opportunity to explore my interest in how uncertainty and the use of stats impacts on our ability to not only explain, but also try to, imperfectly, predict sporting outcomes. Again my articles can be found here.
Feel free to browse the blog or email any points to my address on the home page. Or if you want some insight into the expected refereeing styles at Brazil 2014, why stats should be treated as noisy, rather than beacons of truth or a quick way to calculate where goal difference may tie break a WC group, head over to the aforementioned sites.
Finally, thanks to Andrew, Michael and Simon and everyone who has kindly re-posted my posts.
Firstly, I have been extremely grateful for the opportunity to write for BettingExpert.com for the last couple of years and my content continues to appear there, along with many other fine insights.
In addition, Pinnaclesports.com have also given me the opportunity to explore my interest in how uncertainty and the use of stats impacts on our ability to not only explain, but also try to, imperfectly, predict sporting outcomes. Again my articles can be found here.
Feel free to browse the blog or email any points to my address on the home page. Or if you want some insight into the expected refereeing styles at Brazil 2014, why stats should be treated as noisy, rather than beacons of truth or a quick way to calculate where goal difference may tie break a WC group, head over to the aforementioned sites.
Finally, thanks to Andrew, Michael and Simon and everyone who has kindly re-posted my posts.
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