Wednesday 28 September 2011

Manchester United v Basel,Champions League.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

One of the most switchback games you'll see his year or any other.Basel were massive underdogs at the start and Welbeck's brace of goals in a minute just after the quarter hour left the Swiss side in a seemingly hopeless position.A Basel win from 2-0 down after 17 minutes against the Champions of England would be likely to happen just once in a 1000 attempts,a draw was about 10 times more likely at 1 in 140.
70 playing minutes and a hat trick of unrelated Frei goals later and we were looking at a one in a thousand occurrence,but Young's last gasp equaliser meant we had to settle for a mere 1 in 140 event.

1-0,Welbeck,16 mins.
2-0,Welbeck,17 mins.
2-1,F Frei,58 mins.
2-2,A Frei,60 mins.
2-3,A Frei(pen),76 mins.
3-3,Young,90 mins.

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