EPL Referees Appear To Show Disproportionately More Red Cards To the Away Side.

A glossary of terms is in the pipeline,but for the meantime.....The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected long term average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

It should come as no surprise to discover that in games where one red card is issued,then that card is more likely to be shown to the visiting side.The home side more often will have the better chance of winning the game,therefore the away side will be forced to do more defending,sometimes against superior players,which will lead to more fouls,more yellow cards and ultimately more chance of a red.In the 300+ EPL games spread over the last 7 seasons where a red card was shown over 60% of the time it was shown to the away side.To further test our idea that poorer sides are more likely to attract red cards we first need a way of quantifying pre game team quality.One very good way to represent the difference in quality between teams prior to the game starting is to compare each side's Pre Game Expected Points tallies.And once again we find that the underdog,irrespective of venue receives over 60% of dismissals in games where a single red card is shown.The average Pre Game Expected Points for the team who receives the red card is 1.29 compared to 1.45 for the team that doesn't see red.

Montenegro v England.The Cost of Rooney's Red Card.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.


England gained the one point they needed for qualification for Euro 2012,but after a confident start,they were gradually pegged back.A goal with virtually the half's last kick brought Montenegro within a goal of the group leaders.They were still overwhelming likely to take at least the point they needed and even Rooney's red card came late enough that their Expected Points still remained above 2.It was only after Zverotic's 90th minute equaliser that the situation became slightly desperate.Montenegro spent injury time as marginal favourites,but England hung on.

Scorers.
0-1,Young,11'
0-2,Bent,31'
1-2,Zverotic,45'
1-2 Red Card,Rooney,73'
2-2,Delibasic,90'

The Europa League. A Curse or a Blessing.

The Europa League emerged in it's present format in 2009/10 and is the secondary European competition for teams who fall just below Champions League standard.It's an amalgamation of the UEFA Cup,the now defunct European Cup Winners Cup and the mysterious Intertoto Cup.The Inter Cities Fairs Cup is also a distant ancestor.

After an initial round of knock out ties the format comprises a group format,before reverting to two legged knock out football to determine the single game finalists.Therefore,teams can find themselves playing a considerably increased fixture list if they progress to the group stages.It's been long suggested that the added burden of European football can have a detrimental effect on a team's domestic form because of the increased travel and the increased risk of player fatigue.If there is any truth in this belief,the effect is most likely going to be evident in the Europa League.Not only does the competition comprise of teams who are less likely to be able to maintain high quality squads of players,thus enabling squad rotation to take place with little loss in overall quality,but the games are almost always played on a Thursday night meaning that the participating teams have the smallest possible turn around before their league game on the Sunday.If fatigue,travel and inevitable lack of time to prepare for Sunday's league game is going to impact on domestic results,we should see a noticeable drop off in performance in games immediately following a Europa League match.