Saturday 8 October 2011

Montenegro v England.The Cost of Rooney's Red Card.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

England gained the one point they needed for qualification for Euro 2012,but after a confident start,they were gradually pegged back.A goal with virtually the half's last kick brought Montenegro within a goal of the group leaders.They were still overwhelming likely to take at least the point they needed and even Rooney's red card came late enough that their Expected Points still remained above 2.It was only after Zverotic's 90th minute equaliser that the situation became slightly desperate.Montenegro spent injury time as marginal favourites,but England hung on.

1-2 Red Card,Rooney,73'

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