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Wednesday 9 May 2012

How Will the Premiership Title be Won?

Every possible scenario that can be played out on Sunday and their associated probabilities of actually occurring.

Scenarios Whereby Manchester City Win the Title.

Points Gained by Manchester City. Points Gained by Manchester United. Probability for this Scenario. Seasonal Man City Points Total. Seasonal Man Utd Points Total.
3 0 0.12 89 86
3 1 0.18 89 87
1 0 0.02 87 86
3 3 0.53 89 89
1 1 0.02 87 87
0 0 0.00 86 86
Cumulative Probability. 0.88


Scenarios Whereby Manchester United Win the Title.

Points Gained by Manchester City. Points Gained by Manchester United. Probability
for this Scenario.
Seasonal Man City Points Total. Seasonal Man Utd Points Total.
0 1 0.01 86 87
1 3 0.08 87 89
0 3 0.03 86 89
Cumulative Probability. 0.12

3 comments:

  1. What about the probability of Manu winning the title on goal difference? Would be a very small and unlikely chance, but still a probability nonetheless

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  2. In the region of >1000/1.i don't think Simon Mignolet was born in Salford:-).
    Mark

    ReplyDelete
  3. so if city win 1-0 and Manu wins 10-0, Manu are champs even though city beat them 2x? Head to head should be the first tiebreaker, screw goal differential.

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