Saturday, 27 May 2017

Reading vs Huddersfield, Championship Playoff Final.

The football match for the world's biggest prize takes place at Wembley on Bank Holiday Monday, when the two remaining Championship playoff teams meet to gain entry the the Premier League money mountain.

Much has been and will be written about the two sides, particularly about their less than impressive regular and advanced stats.

Reading, at least managed a positive goal difference of +4 compared to Huddersfield's -2, although the latter impressed more in the probabilistic, process driven world of expected goals.

There's a detailed preview being posted later in the weekend, but as a crib sheet for fans and neutrals alike, here's how the 46 game season looks for both teams through the lens of expected goals.

Each goal attempt has been assigned and expectation of of ending up in the net based on a variety of parameters and their historical contribution to a successful outcome.

Each individual attempt is then simulated along with all the others taken in each match and a scoreline emerges, based on the attempt events in each match.

Score effects will play a part in this partly artificial process and models will not capture every ingredient that goes into a complex team based sport, such as football.

Games have been "replayed" 10,000 times and the percentage of games which end in say a Reading win or a draw for Huddersfield have been counted.

Finally, the match have been arranged in descending order of how well the individual goal attempts and their associated expected goals reflect the actual reality of the result on the day.

Top of Reading's list for "slightly taking the liberty" is their 2-1 win at home to Wolves. The Royals' ExpG totals around 0.5 compared to 1.82 for Wolves. The home team scored with both of their only two shots of note and a simulation of all the attempts from the game suggest they win such a shooting contest 7 times from 100.

A match that kind of sums up the contrasting fortunes of both Reading and Wolves in 2016/17.

(click to enlarge).

Here's all of Reading's league matches, along with the simulated probabilities for each possible outcome. All of the top ten matches and 17 of the top 20 are Reading wins and are also games where the granular shot probabilities were initially skewed in favour of Reading's opponents.

Here's Huddersfield's season and a more mixed bag of game outcomes at the top of the table, perhaps implying that their season hasn't revolved around the Terriers pulling an Al-Habsi sized rabbit out of the hat on more than a few occasions. Unlike Reading.

Data is from the @InfogolApp which can be downloaded free and has historical Premier league, La Liga, Championship, Europa League and Champions League expected goal values for both teams and players.

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