Thursday, 25 May 2017

The Ticking Premier League Clock.

With the 2016/17 Premier League season now a wrap there's inevitably a raft of season reviews, both statistical and narrative driven.

Already sides are scrambling to pick apart the squads of the three relegated teams and capture the talent that shone brightest amongst the mediocrity.

Improving your Premier League squad for the upcoming 2017/18 season is an obvious priority. The likely output from you current collection of talent does not stand still, principally through the ticking of the clock.

It has been well demonstrated that a player's output, as measured by simple metrics or the amount of playing time he is given first waxes and then wanes (desperately resists obvious pun).

Although there is some positional variations, as well as individuals who possibly fall outside the usual, the peak ages in general for Premier League players lies between the ages of 24 and 29.

It is a simple task the chart which teams are well set to enter 2017/18 with a squad that is likely to show an improvement, just because players who were deemed good enough to be given playing time in 2016/17 are either moving into  the sweet spot for age related peak of performance or are remaining within their peak years.

On the flip side, other teams may be anticipating the need to recruit new, younger talent to replace an ageing squad that may have produced results that are acceptable for the club's perceived status in the Premier League pecking order, but if left unresolved will likely see an age related decline.

In the table above, the weighted amount of playing time given to players has been grouped by age,

This makes it possible to see which teams have a comfortable buffer of young talent that was deemed good enough to play some part in 2016/17 and under normal development will be expected to pick up some of the shortfall from older squad members who may begin to show age related decline.

It's also possible to wind the clock forward to spot which sides are best placed to cope with these transitions in the absence of new signings.

Ominously, Chelsea will likely retain the highest proportion of peak age performers, narrowly followed by fellow Champions League participants, Liverpool and Spurs.

By contrast, Manchester City again find themselves with a dearth of peak age performers from their current squad in the upcoming season, suggesting a bout of major squad reconstruction is imminent.

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