Tuesday 4 October 2011

EPL Decision of the Week.Rodwell's Red Card.

No doubt where the decision of the day was made in the latest round of Premiership games.The Merseyside derby was shaping up to be a tight and closely fought affair until Martin Atkinson surprised everyone by red carding Everton's Jack Rodwell for a tackle that barely merited a free kick.The ref was perhaps poorly positioned,too close to the incident and Rodwell's initial movement towards the ball was with his studs momentarily raised.But the tackle was both clean and not made with excessive force,so the decision to rescind the dismissal came as no surprise.

But what in actual hard points did the incorrect verdict cost the Toffees.Liverpool were marginal favourites at the kickoff despite being the visiting side.Ground advantage tends to be less significant in local derbies and on current form the reds are clearly a slightly superior side to their near neighbours.

Liverpool would expect to average about 1.3 goals and allow 1.2 goals in such circumstances and after 22 minutes,just prior to the red card these numbers had decayed to about 1.04 and 0.96 goals respectively.At
0-0,those figures translate to about 1.28 league points on average for Everton and they would go on to win a goalless game,22 minutes old about 33 times out of 100 and draw about 30 times.

The red card changed all of that.

Everton's expected points fell from 1.28 to 0.48 upon the dismissal and their chances of winning the game fell from 33 in 100 to just 8.A draw still remained a reasonably likely scenario at 23 times per 100.Everton would have been in a marginally better position if Liverpool had scored and Rodwell had not been dismissed.

As red cards go it had a major impact on the game,even more so for it being subsequently rescinded.

By the time of the next major,but this time non controversial decision in the 44th minute,Everton had clawed their Expected Points total back to just over half a league point.In awarding the visitor's a penalty,Atkinson caused Everton's EP to plummet to a shade over 0.2,but Howard's save restored it to near to pre penalty levels.

0-0,Rodwell Red Card,23'
0-0,Penalty awarded to Liverpool,44'
0-0,Kuyt misses Penalty,44'

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