Sunday 8 January 2012

Manchester City v Manchester United.FA Cup 3rd Round.Win Probability Graph.

Another match,another potentially busy day for Sir Chris Hoy's Twitter account.Rooney's 10th minute goal was enough to make United the favourite of the three possible outcomes,but it was another controversial decision by Chris Foy two minutes later that condemned Man City to an afternoon of valiant toil with little chance of reward.

Red Cards on average are shown around the hour mark,so they're worth just over an extra half a goal to the recipient's opponents.The team receiving the card will score less and concede more and the net benefit to their opponents will be an average of half a goal..When Foy decided that Kompany's mid pitch challenge on Nani was a reckless two footed lunge and not the clean tackle it appeared from various angles,the subsequent red card was worth around an extra 1.3 goals to Man Utd,because virtually the whole match still to be played.So from the advantageous situation of leading by a goal against superior opponents,United were propelled to the almost unassailable position of leading 1-0 and also becoming the superior team on the pitch.

Even when City reduced the arrears to a single goal,their visitors were still the most likely team to score next and the clock was increasingly becoming United's friend.A magnificent effort by City,but United would have had to have been incredibly careless to have failed to progress on the day.

0-1,Red Card,Kompany (Man City),12'

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