The Manchester Derby and the Penalty that Wasn't Given.

I hope this blog isn't starting to look like a Chris Foy bashing arena,but the Lancastrian referee has been involved in one contentious decision after another and therefore he makes great copy for my win probability model.It's very easy but ultimately too simplistic to add or subtract goals that should or shouldn't have been given to the final match score in an attempt to quantify the effect dubious decision have had on a game. Unless a goal's wrongly given or allowed with the very last kick of a game,the correct approach is to see how the various alternative scenarios would have changed each team's chances of winning,losing or drawing the game as they stood immediately prior to the incident.This approach is particularly pertinent when dealing with penalties,around a quarter of them are missed,so it's wrong to even suggest that a penalty awarded is a goal guaranteed.

Obviously the biggest talking point to arise from the Manchester derby is the dismissal of Kompany for his reckless two footed lunge/superbly timed Bobby Mooresque tackle.(Delete appropriate to you allegiances).The incident has been dealt with here and it certainly swung the game massively in United's favour.Their position in the game immediately following the red card was the equivalent of playing City 11 vs 11,but with at least a two goal lead rather than the one goal lead they actually had at the time.

However,an equally decisive moment came in the 82nd minute when Phil Jones intercepted Kolarov's cut back cross.The ball struck his leg,spun up onto his outstretched arm and went behind for the awarded corner with City trailing 2-3.Again opinions are probably split between neutrals and City fans who thought it was a penalty and United fans who saw no intent on Jones' behalf.The suspicion was that Foy was unable to make a decision because neither he or his far touchline assistant had an unobstructed view of the incident.If he had been better placed a penalty wouldn't have been too surprising a outcome.A potential verdict that Jones was sufficiently concerned about to indicate that the ball hit his chest (virtually the only part of his body the ball didn't hit).

Alternative Realities for the 82nd Minute in the Manchester Derby.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of the non decision,United were massive favourites immediately prior to Kolarov's cross.Despite introducing a ring rusty,racehorse owner,whose last competitive gallop had been eight months previously,United still led by a goal,still had a man advantage and the clock was ticking.A draw was unlikely,a Man City come from behind victory was still hugely improbable and their previous heroics still required a 1 in 200 series of events for them to record an astonishing come from behind victory.

Had Mr Foy,seen Jones' arm come into contact with the ball and had he felt kindly disposed towards City,a United victory would still have remained the most likely outcome of three as Foy blew his whistle to award a spot kick,but the chances of a replay would have leaped to almost coin toss levels.To make the draw the favoured outcome,City needed to score the penalty,presumably through the boot of Milner as most of their regular penalty takers were either injured,on loan or on a beach.They would however,have still remained the outsiders to take the game in the remaining eight minutes plus stoppage time.....although from the situation of 3-3 the miracle turnaround was now merely unlikely compared to massively improbable.

All in all another game changing call of huge proportions with no definitively right or wrong decision,especially given the compromised sight lines.Graham Poll in his Daily Mail column thought it was a penalty,so I'm inclined to think this was one call Mr Foy got right.

Of course had Chris Foy awarded Manchester United a 62nd minute penalty when Kolarov bundled into Valencia,two minutes before City's second goal.........but there's a limit to the number of times even the most unfortunate of refs are put through the win probability wringer.

Manchester City v Manchester United.FA Cup 3rd Round.Win Probability Graph.

Another match,another potentially busy day for Sir Chris Hoy's Twitter account.Rooney's 10th minute goal was enough to make United the favourite of the three possible outcomes,but it was another controversial decision by Chris Foy two minutes later that condemned Man City to an afternoon of valiant toil with little chance of reward.

Red Cards on average are shown around the hour mark,so they're worth just over an extra half a goal to the recipient's opponents.The team receiving the card will score less and concede more and the net benefit to their opponents will be an average of half a goal..When Foy decided that Kompany's mid pitch challenge on Nani was a reckless two footed lunge and not the clean tackle it appeared from various angles,the subsequent red card was worth around an extra 1.3 goals to Man Utd,because virtually the whole match still to be played.So from the advantageous situation of leading by a goal against superior opponents,United were propelled to the almost unassailable position of leading 1-0 and also becoming the superior team on the pitch.

Even when City reduced the arrears to a single goal,their visitors were still the most likely team to score next and the clock was increasingly becoming United's friend.A magnificent effort by City,but United would have had to have been incredibly careless to have failed to progress on the day.

Scorers:
0-1,Rooney,10'
0-1,Red Card,Kompany (Man City),12'
0-2,Welbeck,30'
0-3.Rooney,39'
1-3,Kolarov,48'
2-3,Aguero,64'