The Manchester Derby and the Penalty that Wasn't Given.

I hope this blog isn't starting to look like a Chris Foy bashing arena,but the Lancastrian referee has been involved in one contentious decision after another and therefore he makes great copy for my win probability model.It's very easy but ultimately too simplistic to add or subtract goals that should or shouldn't have been given to the final match score in an attempt to quantify the effect dubious decision have had on a game. Unless a goal's wrongly given or allowed with the very last kick of a game,the correct approach is to see how the various alternative scenarios would have changed each team's chances of winning,losing or drawing the game as they stood immediately prior to the incident.This approach is particularly pertinent when dealing with penalties,around a quarter of them are missed,so it's wrong to even suggest that a penalty awarded is a goal guaranteed.

Obviously the biggest talking point to arise from the Manchester derby is the dismissal of Kompany for his reckless two footed lunge/superbly timed Bobby Mooresque tackle.(Delete appropriate to you allegiances).The incident has been dealt with here and it certainly swung the game massively in United's favour.Their position in the game immediately following the red card was the equivalent of playing City 11 vs 11,but with at least a two goal lead rather than the one goal lead they actually had at the time.

However,an equally decisive moment came in the 82nd minute when Phil Jones intercepted Kolarov's cut back cross.The ball struck his leg,spun up onto his outstretched arm and went behind for the awarded corner with City trailing 2-3.Again opinions are probably split between neutrals and City fans who thought it was a penalty and United fans who saw no intent on Jones' behalf.The suspicion was that Foy was unable to make a decision because neither he or his far touchline assistant had an unobstructed view of the incident.If he had been better placed a penalty wouldn't have been too surprising a outcome.A potential verdict that Jones was sufficiently concerned about to indicate that the ball hit his chest (virtually the only part of his body the ball didn't hit).

Alternative Realities for the 82nd Minute in the Manchester Derby.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of the non decision,United were massive favourites immediately prior to Kolarov's cross.Despite introducing a ring rusty,racehorse owner,whose last competitive gallop had been eight months previously,United still led by a goal,still had a man advantage and the clock was ticking.A draw was unlikely,a Man City come from behind victory was still hugely improbable and their previous heroics still required a 1 in 200 series of events for them to record an astonishing come from behind victory.

Had Mr Foy,seen Jones' arm come into contact with the ball and had he felt kindly disposed towards City,a United victory would still have remained the most likely outcome of three as Foy blew his whistle to award a spot kick,but the chances of a replay would have leaped to almost coin toss levels.To make the draw the favoured outcome,City needed to score the penalty,presumably through the boot of Milner as most of their regular penalty takers were either injured,on loan or on a beach.They would however,have still remained the outsiders to take the game in the remaining eight minutes plus stoppage time.....although from the situation of 3-3 the miracle turnaround was now merely unlikely compared to massively improbable.

All in all another game changing call of huge proportions with no definitively right or wrong decision,especially given the compromised sight lines.Graham Poll in his Daily Mail column thought it was a penalty,so I'm inclined to think this was one call Mr Foy got right.

Of course had Chris Foy awarded Manchester United a 62nd minute penalty when Kolarov bundled into Valencia,two minutes before City's second goal.........but there's a limit to the number of times even the most unfortunate of refs are put through the win probability wringer.

Manchester City v Manchester United.FA Cup 3rd Round.Win Probability Graph.

Another match,another potentially busy day for Sir Chris Hoy's Twitter account.Rooney's 10th minute goal was enough to make United the favourite of the three possible outcomes,but it was another controversial decision by Chris Foy two minutes later that condemned Man City to an afternoon of valiant toil with little chance of reward.

Red Cards on average are shown around the hour mark,so they're worth just over an extra half a goal to the recipient's opponents.The team receiving the card will score less and concede more and the net benefit to their opponents will be an average of half a goal..When Foy decided that Kompany's mid pitch challenge on Nani was a reckless two footed lunge and not the clean tackle it appeared from various angles,the subsequent red card was worth around an extra 1.3 goals to Man Utd,because virtually the whole match still to be played.So from the advantageous situation of leading by a goal against superior opponents,United were propelled to the almost unassailable position of leading 1-0 and also becoming the superior team on the pitch.

Even when City reduced the arrears to a single goal,their visitors were still the most likely team to score next and the clock was increasingly becoming United's friend.A magnificent effort by City,but United would have had to have been incredibly careless to have failed to progress on the day.

Scorers:
0-1,Rooney,10'
0-1,Red Card,Kompany (Man City),12'
0-2,Welbeck,30'
0-3.Rooney,39'
1-3,Kolarov,48'
2-3,Aguero,64'

Stoke 2 Tottenham 1.The Ultimate Game of What Ifs.

The Britannia Stadium was at it's inhospitable best for the visit of the TV cameras and Tottenham on late Sunday afternoon.The rain was intermittently slanting across the pitch and noise volume was prolonged and loud.The Stoke team were also back to defying convention by winning in their unique and unusual way.See here.The Potters had 40% of shots on target,36% of the possession,but claimed 66% of the goals and 100% of the points,producing another classic "Stoke under Pulis" display.

Stoke 2 Tottenham 1.

Scorers:
1-0,Etherington,13'
2-0,Etherington,43'
2-0,Penalty awarded to Spurs,61'
2-1,Adebayor(pen),62'
2-1,Red Card,Kaboul,82'

The bare facts of the game hide a match that was bathed in controversy almost from the start.Red cards,penalties,both given and not given,disallowed goals,goal line handballs,Stoke/Spurs encounters over the EPL years have featured all of these things and they each put in an appearance during Sunday's action packed encounter.

Stoke's Opening Goal with the Score at 0-0.

Crouch,after initially splitting opinion after his big money arrival from Tottenham is proving to be a hit.His continually underestimated ball skills were in evidence after 13 minutes when he cleverly slid the ball across the face of goal for Etherington to bundle home Stoke's opening goal.Unfortunately for the officials he fairly clearly handled the ball just prior to his decisive pass.He also handled at the Brit last season,preventing a Walters equaliser deep into the game when playing for Spurs.Neither official spotted that one either,so there was little sympathy from the Stoke fans as Mr Foy again showed he has an apparent  blindspot when reffing Crouchie.

The goal was enough to propel Stoke's expected points past the diminished Spurs projection.Had the goal not stood,Tottenham would have remained the strong favourites,Stoke's strong start notwithstanding.

Modric's Penalty Award with the Score at 2-0.


Fans are notoriously blinkered when viewing penalties awarded against their own side,so the incessant booing  of Modric following his slightly delayed action tumble following Whelan's clumsy lunge was to be expected.There was enough visual evidence from some of the camera angles to suggest that contact was non existent.However,the intent to foul is often sufficient to cause a player to change direction and lose balance and so Foy's call was at least understandable.Less so,especially given the soft second yellow dished out to Kaboul after fouling Walters in a much less threatening position on 82',was his failure to yellow card Whelan.

 Stoke remained favoured over Spurs from their leading position with just under 30 minutes remaining even allowing for an expected Spurs onslaught as the Londoner's suspicion that the game was retrievable bore fruit.Had the penalty not been awarded and scored,Stoke fans would have been breathing at lot more easily....at least for the next couple of minutes.

Kaboul fails to get Spurs a second Penalty with the Score at 2-1.


Mr Foy was probably reluctant to invoke the wrath of the Stoke fans so soon after the Modric award and turned down Kaboul's justified claims for a second spot kick when Shawcross manhandled him as the pair jumped for a cross.Given the amount of contact refs are allowing defenders at the moment,Shawcross would have been right to feel aggrieved if his shirt tug had been punished,but it was a foul.Kaboul was booked for his amusingly mimed protest.

If the decision had gone Spurs' way,Stoke would have clung onto marginal favouritism.As Adebayor had stepped up for the kick,he would have faced a dilemma.Stick with his favoured and already used method of shooting to the keepers left or change sides,simply blast it or allow Modric to take the kick.So there was already enough uncertainty about whether Spurs would actually have scored from the spot.However,the graph has simply factored in the usual 75/25 success rate for penalties.

The 74th minute.


Viewed from row two of the Boothen End the 74th minute didn't appear all that dramatic,but apparently it was.100 yards from the action,most Boothen Enders picked up the linesman's flag before Adebayor turned the ball home,but few saw the two penalty shouts,both against Shawcross and both likely to have resulted in his dismissal.

Defoe Foul/Shawcross Goalline Clearance with the Score at 2-1.

Within seconds Shawcross apparently prevents Defoe from connecting from close range with a shirt tug and then has the presence of mind to cover his undefended goal by clearing Kaboul's cross shot,albeitwith his arm.Had Mr Foy taken a less generous view Stoke's captain would have been off and Adebayor would have been playing mind games with Sorenson again.

The graph refers to the handball,but is equally applicable to the alleged foul on Defoe and demonstrates the absolutely punitive nature of a red card and penalty combined.Stoke would have fallen from being strong favourites to being likely to pick up on average around a point compared to almost 1.5 expected points for Spurs.The graph reflects that the penalty had yet to be missed or scored.

Adebayor's Disallowed Goal with the Score at 2-1.


Marc Wilson's conversion to fullback hasn't be all plain sailing.Despite an excellent season he is occasionally caught ball watching and immediately following the Shawcross incidents he was late tracking out of the box.That was enough to play Adebayor well onside,but with Adebayor and Wilson moving in opposite directions it was only a split second before the Spurs striker appeared to be offside and that optical illusion combined with Shawcross and Sorenson's confident offside appeal was sufficient to get Stoke a lucky verdict.

Had Adebayor's goal stood and the game became tied,Stoke would have found themselves in virtually the same Expected Points situation as they would have been if instead Shawcross had been dismissed and Spurs were preparing to take a potentially game tying penalty.So the two contrasting scenarios are virtually interchangeable and interestingly in my opinion,intuitively neither choice seems "better" for Stoke than the other.