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Friday, 8 June 2012

Expected Points Graphs for the Opening Nine Days of Euro 2012.





Scorers.
17',Lewandowski,1-0
44',Red Card,Papastathopoulos,(Greece).
51',Salpingidis,1-1
69,Red Card,Szczesny,(Poland)+Penalty.
71,Penalty Missed.

The most incident packed game of the opening round as Poland threw away virtually every advantage known to football.Namely,home field advantage,the first goal and an initial red card shown to their opponents.Poland were pre game favourites,mostly because of the venue,but they stretched their advantage with a goal after 17'.

Papastathopoulos' barely believable red card then left Greece in a hole from which few teams would have recovered.Yet 25 playing minutes later they were briefly a team who would expect to take an average of 2 points per game longterm.That position of Greek strength only lasted for less than a second of actual playing time,as the expected benefits from Szczesny's red card and penalty wasn't fully realised when Karagounis' penalty was saved by Tyton.
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Scorers.
15',Gzagoev,1-0
24',Shirokov,2-0
52',Pilar,2-1
79',Gzagoev,3-1
82',Pavlyuchenko,4-1

A fairly routine win for Russia.Czech Republic briefly threaten to be competitive when they halved Russia's lead of 52' minutes,but they were still the inferior side trailing with time running out and it was Russia who added to the scoreline.
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Scorer.
24',Krohn-Dehli,0-1.

The Dutch were strong pre game favourites,but still lost that position when the Danes scored an early opening goal and despite many chances Holland's likelihood of points slowed ebbed away.
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Scorer.
72'Gomez,1-0

A fairly dull affair where Portugal's defensive approach succeeded just long enough to hand the Germans a massive advantage with precious little time for an equaliser.
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Scorers.
61',0-1,Natale.
63',1-1,Fabregas.

Another fairly dull graph.The relative lateness of underdog Italy's opening goal also put them in a strong match position,but Fabregas' reply was almost instant and both team's Expected Points meandered gently towards 1 at fulltime.
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Scorers.
3',1-0,Mandzukic
19',1-1,St Ledger
43',2-1,Jelavic
48',3-1,Mandzukic

An exciting first half as the Republic showed lots of fight to stay competitive with the pre game favourites.But Jelavic's pre half time go ahead goal from an Irish assist confirmed the superiority Croatia had gained following their opening goal and the second half petered out into a routine win for the better side.
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Scorers.
31',Lescott,0-1
39',Nasri,1-1

A similar profile to the Italy Spain game with one goal apiece arriving in quick succession.Many were split on who to make pre game favourites and I went with the patriotic option.
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Scorers.
52',Ibrahimovic,0-1
55',Shevchenko,1-1
61',Shevchenko,2-1

A marvelous night for the co hosts and a burst of sustained excitement for the neutrals after a cagey start.Opening goals after the interval often lead to big shifts in expectation,but following on from the example set by Spain and France,Ukraine replied within minutes.Unlike the two previous champions,Shevchenko then pushed his side into a commanding position with a second and then watched on as the hosts rode their luck and the expectation curve all the way to 3 points.

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Scorers.
3',Jiracek,0-1
6',Pilar,0-2
53',Gekas,1-2

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Scorers.
37',Dzagoev,0-1
57',Blaszczykowski,1-1

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Scorers.
24',0-1,Pepe
36',0-2,Postiga
41',1-2,Bendtner
81',2-2,Bendtner
87',2-3,Varela

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Scorers.
24',0-1,Gomez
38',0-2,Gomez
72',1-2,van Persie

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Scorers.
39',0-1,Pirlo
72',1-1,Mandzukic

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Scorers.
4',1-0,Torres
49',2-0,Silva
71',3-0,Torres
83',4-0,Fabregas

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Scorers,
53',0-1,Menez
56',0-2,Cabaye

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Scorers.
23',0-1,Carroll
49',1-1,Johnson(og)
59',2-1,Mellberg
64',2-2,Walcott
78',2-3,Welbeck

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Scorer.
72',1-0,Jiracek.

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Scorer.
45',1-0,Karagounis.

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Scorers.
11',0-1,v.d. Vaart
28',1-1,Ronaldo
74',2-1,Ronaldo

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