Italy for example have found themselves in very good positions in both of their matches,but they haven't seen either game through to the end.Just prior to their two opponents,Spain and Croatia each grabbing an equaliser,Italy had respectively a 62% and 78% chance of taking all three points from each of those games.
Sweden are already going home having failed to pick up a points in their opening two matches,despite leading in both and owning a near 70% chance of taking all three points in each game.
The figures below are much more descriptive of what has occurred rather than being predictive of what may happen in the last group games or the knockout phase.But they do illustrate how teams are vulnerable to luck in such competitions.Spain were more likely to take nothing from the Italy game at their low point than they were to take all three points in the same game where they eventually finished with a point.And England had a 68% chance of returning either pointless or with all three points from different stages of their match with Sweden and they somehow took home all the spoils.
Making too much of "form" shown over just two games often distorts a team's underlying level of talent.The true talent of each team at Euro 2012 indicated by a weighted sample of results over a much longer timescale probably hasn't changed much for the addition of two extra results.
The Highest Chances of Taking either 3 or 0 Points Achieved by Teams at Euro 2012 After Two Group Games.
|COUNTRY||Probablity High for 3 Points.||Probability |
High for 3 Points.
|Probability High for 0 Points.||Probability High for 0 Points.||Actual |
|1st Game.||2nd Game.||1st Game||2nd Game.||1st Game.||2nd Game.|