Friday, 29 June 2012

How Unlikely Was Balotelli's Two Goals from Three Strikes.

No prizes for knowing the story of the semi final.No doubt spurred on by the views of a largely trophyless Alan Shearer that he had achieved nothing,Mario scored both goals in Italy's dismissal of the Germans.His first was via a magnificent Cassano assist.It's true that Mario had to deftly position himself the wrong side of Badstuber,but the cross was just inside the sweet spot for headers.Once inside the six yard box a header starts to become more difficult to save than a shot,a point not lost on Neuer who accepted his fate as soon as the ball left Mario's forehead.

The German keeper had less excuse for tamely capitulating on the second goal,18 yards distant and around 5 yards right of centre aren't natural goal scoring chances,typically having a goal expectancy of around 1 in 10,but Mario found the ball on the sweet spot of it's bounce to find the target just inside the right upright with both power and swerve.

As nights go it was almost perfect.The exception being Mario's only other shot of the match from his most difficult opportunity where he was odds on to miss the target and duly obliged.At least he spared himself the dilemma of whether or not to celebrate a Euro semi final hat trick.

The Likelihood of Mario's Three Chances Resulting in Goals.

Outcome from Mario's 3 Shots. Likelihood of Outcome.
Three Goals. 1 in 1000
Two Goals. 1 in 25
One Goal. 1 in 3
Zero Goals. 2 in 3

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