Friday, 26 August 2011

Individual Goal Values for the EPL 20th,21st and 22nd August 2011.

Firstly a brief description of the methodology.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each EPL game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

By comparing those totals immediately before and immediately after a goal is scored it is possible to assign a value to that goal.Similar significant events that occur during a game,such as dismissals,goalkeeping saves and referring mistakes can be treated in the same way.
All probabilities account for the respective abilities of both sides.An early goal by a vastly superior side is for example less "valuable" than one scored by a team in a more evenly matched encounter.
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Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle.
A feisty North East derby that was more interesting for what didn't happen than for what did.The home side were moderate pre game favourites,but Larsson's goalline handball which was missed by World Cup final referee Howard Webb would have changed all that.The red card alone would have improved Newcastle's EP from 1.1 to 2.08 and a successfully converted penalty would have moved it on further to 2.68 points.
Of course none of that happened,but justice was done when Taylor's second half strike advanced Newcastle's EP from 1.15 points to 2.29 and a belated red card sealed victory.

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Norwich 1-1 Stoke.

Another fascinating game statistically speaking.Trailing by a goal after 63 minutes with their EP languishing at 0.34,Stoke won a dubious penalty and Norwich were reduced to 10 men.The dismissal bumped the Potters' EP up to 0.66 and if Walters had scored from the spot it would have increased to 1.84.He missed and it needed a 92nd minute Jones equaliser to boost their then EP by over 1400% and ultimately grab a point.

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Arsenal 0-2 Liverpool.
More self inflicted red card woes for Arsenal,whose disciplinary record is atrocious especially when you considered the small amount of time they spend without the ball.The Gunners EP dropped from 1.28 to 0.80 on Frimpong's dismissal.The own goal further reduced it to 0.1 and the game was virtually over before Liverpool actually had to contribute for themselves.

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Swansea 0-0 Wigan.

More penalty drama as Swansea welcomed Premier League action and sell out home crowds to the Liberty.The Swans' EP of 1.26 would have crashed to 0.31 had Watson converted Wigan's 73 minute spot kick,but Vorm made the save.

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Chelsea 2-1 WBA.
The opening campaign didn't get much easier for WBA.Long's early strike dragged down Chelsea's EP by a considerable amount and raised WBA's just enough to bring the teams close to parity.Chelsea spent over half the game as underdogs before a high value strike from Anelka and a late and equally valuable one from Malouda turned the game on it's head.

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Aston Villa 3-1 Blackburn.
Standard fare both on the pitch and from a statistical viewpoint.

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Bolton 2-3 ManCity.
Silva's opening goal was worth most in this match.It advanced ManCity's EP all the way to 2.5 points at a relative early stage of the game.Subsequent Blues scorers needed Bolton to make a game of it for their goals to be of a similar value and the Trotters couldn't quite oblige.Despite going down by the odd goal in five and being at home,Bolton's EP never managed to rise above 1 and the much superior Man City never saw their's fall much below 2.

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ManU 3-0 Tottenham.
Little out of the ordinary on show here.Despite the lateness of United's goals they still had a EP of just shy of 2 prior to Welbeck's opener.

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Wolves 2-0 Fulham.
The first goal in this reasonably even contest was always going to be fairly valuable and so it proved.Doyle's goal advanced Wolves' EP from 1.43 to 2.35 and his celebrations cost him a booking.

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Everton 0-1 QPR.
Smith's goal was a high EP value score in a week of high value strikes,flip flopping the pre match favourites in the process.Not a great month for Everton,who are behind in matches played and financially on their uppers.

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A round up of the value of every goal scored this weekend.

 SCORER TEAM Pre goal Points Expectation. Post goal Points Expectation. Increased Points Expectation. Percentage Increase ARSENAL OG Liverpool 1.26 2.61 1.36 108.0 MALOUDA Chelsea 1.57 2.86 1.29 81.8 ANELKA Chelsea 0.87 2.11 1.24 143.4 TAYLOR Newcastle 1.15 2.29 1.14 100 JONES Stoke 0.07 1.08 1.01 1476 DOYLE Wolves 1.43 2.35 0.92 64.7 DE LAET Norwich 1.38 2.28 0.90 65.0 WELBECK ManU 1.86 2.75 0.88 47.4 SMITH QPR 0.71 1.53 0.82 115.1 SILVA ManCity 1.83 2.54 0.71 39.0 AGBONLAHOR Aston Villa 1.94 2.57 0.63 32.2 LONG WBA 0.39 0.94 0.55 142.3 JARVIS Wolves 2.37 2.83 0.46 20.0 DAVIES Bolton 0.16 0.55 0.39 251.2 BARRY ManCity 2.55 2.89 0.34 13.3 DZEKO ManCity 2.57 2.90 0.34 13.2 HESKEY Aston Villa 2.58 2.89 0.31 12.1 BENT Aston Villa 2.66 2.95 0.29 11.1 KLASNIC Bolton 0.07 0.27 0.21 319.4 ANDERSON ManU 2.79 2.98 0.19 7.0 PEDERSEN Blackburn 0.04 0.23 0.19 422.9 SUAREZ Liverpool 2.84 2.99 0.15 5.3 ROONEY ManU 2.99 3.00 0.01 0.19