Sunday, 28 August 2011

Individual Goal Values for the EPL 28th August 2011.

WBA 0-1 Stoke.
Stoke's record of 20 wins,8 draws and one defeat against WBA over the last 20 years was added to with a high value last minute strike from a full back playing as a makeshift striker.Tight,low scoring games are always going to lead to high value goals and Shotton's strike,coming as it did in the last minute was one of the highest you'll see all year.

ManU 8-2 Arsenal.
Big margin blowouts for favoured teams rarely produce very interesting graphs as the team EP quickly approaches 3.This game was very slightly more interesting than the usual rout.United led 1-0 when Arsenal won a 27th minute penalty and a successful conversion would have dropped United's EP from 2.67 to 2.04 and raised the Gunners' from 0.2 to 0.7.However,following the early season trend,Van Persie failed from the spot,60 seconds later the Red Devils were 2-0 up and their EP had climbed to 2.92 and Arsenal's was down at 0.05.A converted penalty may not have changed the ultimate result,but the miss led to a massive EP swing compared to what might have been.
Neither Rooney's hat trick,nor Arsenal's two goals registered much on the EP scale and neither team's EP showed any movement for most of the second half. The 4th red card of the season for Arsenal was meaningless in the context of game EP.

Tottenham 1-5 Man City.
Man City were not as big a favourite as their near neighbours,so there was more EP on offer for a comfortable victory. Dzeko's first three goals easily outscored Rooney's hat trick later in the day.Any potential to accumulate  significant EP had vanished by the 55th minute barring a concerted Spurs comeback and that was never on the cards.

Newcastle 2-1 Fulham.
A fairly standard example of a comfortable home win involving two evenly matched teams was briefly interrupted by a small blip bought about by Dempsey's late consolation.

How much a Team's Expected Points were increased by each Premiership Goal.

Pre Goal
Points Expectation.
Post Goal
Points Expectation.
Points Expectation.
SHOTTON Stoke 90 1.05 2.81 1.76
BEST Newcastle 48 1.52 2.44 0.92
DZEKO Man City 34 1.40 2.27 0.87
WELBECK ManU 22 2.08 2.67 0.59
DZEKO Man City 41 2.30 2.79 0.49
BEST Newcastle 66 2.53 2.92 0.39
YOUNG ManU 28 2.67 2.92 0.25
DZEKO Man City 55 2.85 2.96 0.11
DEMPSEY Fulham 88 0.01 0.11 0.10
ROONEY ManU 41 2.93 2.99 0.06
ROONEY ManU 64 2.96 3.00 0.04
WALCOTT Arsenal 45 0.006 0.037 0.031
AGUERO Man City 60 2.98 3.00 0.02
KABOUL Tottenham 68 0.001 0.007 0.006
NANI ManU 67 3.0 3.0 0
PARK ManU 70 3.0 3.0 0
ROONEY ManU 82 3.0 3.0 0
DZEKO Man City 90 3.0 3.0 0
VAN PERSIE Arsenal 74 0 0 0

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