Sunday, 28 August 2011

Individual Goal Values for the EPL 27th August 2011.

Firstly a brief description of the methodology.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each EPL game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.

By comparing those totals immediately before and immediately after a goal is scored it is possible to assign a value to that goal.Similar significant events that occur during a game,such as dismissals,goalkeeping saves and referring mistakes can be treated in the same way.
All probabilities account for the respective abilities of both sides.An early goal by a vastly superior side is for example less "valuable" than one scored by a team in a more evenly matched encounter.

Wigan 2-0 QPR.
A comfortable looking victory as Wigan enhanced their pre game superiority with two Di Santo goals either side of the interval.Although the first strike was worth over twice the second,it was the second goal that virtually guaranteed the three points.This indicates that the raw EP of a goal isn't the whole story.A combination of El Habsi and the woodwork ensured that the game didn't take a very different course on two occasions.

Blackburn 0-1 Everton.
A much more interesting game than the bare scoreline would indicate.The early season trend to miss your penalties continued apace as first Hoilett and then Fomica failed to score from the spot for Blackburn.As slight pre game underdogs,the Blackburn EP spent most of the game hovering just above one.That EP would have received a healthy,but not decisive boost if the first kick had been converted,but Formica's very late failure was much more costly in terms of potential EP gains.Arteta  predictably scored from Everton's 90 minute penalty,providing an object lesson in converting under pressure and also gaining one of the biggest EP goals it's possible to score,Blackburn's EP crashing from just above 1 to 0.09 in the process.

Swansea 0-0 Sunderland.
Little evidence of excitement from the graphs and Swansea remain goalless after three games.Vorm was by far the more involved of the two keepers and fortunately for the Welsh newboys he looks an excellent buy.A definite candidate for a graph of his own to chart the contribution he's making to Swansea's quest for points.

Aston Villa 0-0 Wolves.
Another fairly grim 0-0.Villa's EP drifted down to 1 from the higher starting point,so Wolves wil be the happier of the two teams as they continue to gather early points to stave of any threat of relegation come May next year.

Chelsea 3-1 Norwich.
A perhaps surprising graph showing Norwich's poor EP for virtually the entire match given that the game was only won late on.However,it is an accurate reflection of the gulf in talent between the sides.The much superior Chelsea side still had about 90 minutes of gametime ahead of them when Bosingwa scored.That supremacy was already factored into Chelsea's pre goal EP,so the Bosingwa goal was a relatively low value strike especially for an opening goal.Holt's equaliser increased Norwich's pre goal EP by almost 600%,but still didn't raise it's raw value above a point.

Liverpool 3-1 Bolton.
Liverpool's first goal gave the game a similar opening profile to their first home game against Sunderland.However,this time it was the Reds who grabbed the second and we ended up with the kind of graph we were seeing when Liverpool were bona fide members of the Big Four.

Expected Points Values for individual goals from Saturday 27th of August.

Goal Points Expectation.

Post Goal
Points Expectation.
Points Expectation.
ARTETA. Everton 90 1.12 2.83 1.71
LAMPARD. Chelsea 82 1.72 2.99 1.27
DI SANTO. Wigan 41 1.43 2.34 0.91
HENDERSON. Liverpool 15 2.20 2.71 0.51
HOLT. Norwich 63 0.10 0.59 0.49
DI SANTO. Wigan 66 2.47 2.90 0.43
BOSINGWA. Chelsea 6 2.56 2.86 0.30
SKRTEL. Liverpool 52 2.71 2.95 0.24
ADAM Liverpool 53 2.95 2.99 0.04
KLASNIC Bolton 90 0.000 0.002 0.002
MATA Chelsea 90 3.0 3.0 0

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