The first table charts how efficient the visiting teams are at turning shots on target into goals for every Premiership team over the last 6 seasons.The quality of the strikeforce faced by the home defence is on average going to be of a similar quality for each team.Constant members of the EPL over the time span will have faced virtually identical calibres of attacks,the only attack they won't have faced but others will are obviously their own.Therefore,the conversion rate that the home team sees for it's opponents shots will be largely dependent upon their ability to defend on target shots.
This ability will be down to the goalkeepers,but a significant proportion of the credit should also be given to the overall defensive capability of the team.If an attacker has time and space to shoot his shot will likely be more accurately aimed away from the keeper and more powerful.If he's being quickly shutdown by defenders,then the quality of his on target shot will suffer,making them easier to save.
Once again Man U top the list.Visitors to Old Trafford converted shots at the lowest rate,but the second most difficult ground to convert on target chances into goals was the Britannia Stadium.Stoke concede proportionally more on target shots than United,but accepting that,they are the second most technically gifted side in the Premiership at dealing with each individual shot.This skill can be quantified in terms of extra points per season gained for this talent.If Stoke were an averagely talented shotstopping side they would have been expected to concede about 71 goals from the 355 on target shots they faced at the Brit instead of the 54 goals they did allow.So together their keepers and defensive players "saved" the side 17 extra goals over three seasons.That equates on average to 3 tenths of a goal for every home game,which in turn is worth 0.2 extra league points per home game or almost 4 extra league points over a seasons worth of games.
Your first option to prevent goals is to stop teams having shots on target,but to do this you have to have the league's best,and therefore most expensive players on your side.If like Stoke you are working on a extremely limited budget by comparison with the top sides,you have to deal with the greater number of shots you face as well as you can.And that's clearly what they do.
Goals Scored to Shots On Target Ratio for Visitors to Premiership Grounds over the Last 6 Seasons.
|Home Side.||Shots on Target by Away Side.||Goals Scored by Away Side.||Conversion |
The table for teams when they are away also features Man Utd near the top,so they can be confident choices as the most effective team overall at dealing with shot on target.Stoke pitch in at 4th spot,they're not quite as impressive on their travels,but they still gain about 2 extra league points by virtue of their shot saving abilities compared to an average road side.
Goals Scored to Shots On Target Ratio for Home Teams Entertaining Specific Sides over the Last 6 Seasons.
|Away Side.|| Shots |
on Target by Home Side.
| Goals |
Scored by Home side.