Friday, 23 September 2011

Individual Player Winning Contribution for Stoke 1 - 0 Liverpool.

Success Probability (SP) is the probability that a team will win a game plus half the probability that a team will draw a game from any chosen point in the game.

1-0,Walters (pen),21 mins.

Wilkinson on for Huth,64 mins.
Jones on for Etherington,68 mins.
Palacios on for Delap,71 mins.

Bellamy on for Henderson,67 mins.
Carroll on for Kuyt,68 mins.
Johnson on for Skrtel,81 mins. 

Only one story here.Liverpool's pre game success probability had fallen from 0.571 to 0.564,before Carragher's unnecessary foul single handedly sent it plummeting to 0.36.Penalties are converted at around 70+% so it was odds on that the penalty would be converted and their SP would fall even further to 0.293.Only a Reina save or Walters miss would restore Liverpool's SP to it's pre penalty levels.

The foul was entirely down to Carragher,so he's penalised for the entire fall immediately after the penalty award.If Reina had made the save he would have been credited with restoring Liverpool to the pre award state.However,Walters converted,but Reina at least had the small consolation of only being penalised 20% of of the move from the SP immediately following the award and the SP following Walters' goal.A large amount of the negative SP from a penalty is borne by the player who commits the infringement.The rest of the back four were penalised 44% of the shift in SP after the score for allowing the situation to develop initially and so Carragher received a double whammy of negative SP.Short of being sent off as well,which he arguably should have been,it's hard to imagine how a defender could have a more damaging 60 seconds of play.

Walters both scored and created the goal by being the fouled player,so he gets the full 100% credit for the winning goal.


Player. Win Contribution.
Begovic. 0.066
Huth. 0.049
Shawcross. 0.066
Upson. 0.066
Wilson. 0.066
Delap. 0.051
Whitehead. 0.066
Pennant. 0.066
Etherington. 0.050
Crouch. 0.066
WALTERS. 0.337
Wilkinson. 0.017
Jones. 0.016
Palacios. 0.015
Total 1.000


Player. Win Contribution.
Reina. 0.013
Agger. 0.017
Enrique. 0.017
Skrtel. 0.028
Adam. 0.020
Downing. 0.020
Henderson. 0.036
Lucas. 0.020
Kuyt. 0.038
Suarez. 0.022
Johnson. -0.011
Bellamy. -0.016
Carroll. -0.016
Total. 0.000

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